Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I'm not saying all teams are equal at all, so we agree.
What I am saying is that there really isn't any numbers to support that the Flames are a team that gets a lot of shots within the home plate high danger area (proven), but of these shots they have a higher percentage of weaker or feeble or better defended shots than other teams.
There isn't anything to support that, so it seems more like choosing a narrative than actually looking at stats.
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I actually feel quite the same as Enoch on this one. I have been very openly critical of the Flames' D during wins in the first 20 game set of the season.
What my 'eye test' noted is that it sure seems that the high danger chances from other teams seems 'higher' than often what the Flames generate. I see a sprawling Smith trying to extend a lot to make that save. I see guys with what seems like more time and space in those high danger areas. Etc.
This is actually what irritates me about advanced stats. I still think that these stats are in their relative infancy. I do think that there will be much better stats available in the future (and I am sure many teams have some really interesting and valuable metrics available), but I disagree on how the stats are employed.
For instance, as Calgary fans, we have seen both sides of the argument. Under Hartley, it was always 'unsustainable' stats, but if you go back and re-read a lot of those posts, I remember a lot of people making mention of how in so many games teams may have absolutely dominated possession, but they didn't look 'dangerous' or close to winning. Even their high-danger chances were well-defended and teams didn't have the time or the space to make use of the chance.
Now under this 'possession-friendly' and sustainable system that Gulutzan has the team playing, it often seems like the opposite to me. Flames are often getting a lot of shots off, but it feels like the goalie has to practically make a mistake for anything to go in. Their high-danger chances often seem contested and predictive, and the goalie is often out challenging and squared-up.
It almost seems like 'high danger chances' are completely subjective. That just getting a shot off in one of those areas of the ice counts.
I like how the Flames have tightened-up defensively. I have been super-critical of them in this area, particularly as it was one of the main reasons why Gulutzan was hired to coach the team. They just seemed now seem very predictable offensively, are almost too slow in the offensive zone (including on the PP, which I think is the reason why that PP has been terrible for a while) and players seemed to start holding their sticks even tighter because of it.
Now, of course my 'eye test' is completely subjective of course. Heck, maybe I am even wrong. I MOSTLY like how the Flames are playing, but they seem to be a very boring team to watch, and I think the reason for that is that they are taking way too long to set-up for offensive chances, their transition is horribly slow (and predictable at times), their PP is slow and predictable, and it is because of their pace that it sure seems like their high-danger chances are being contested more than the other way around.
Other teams are doing to the Flames what Hartley's team was doing to them a couple of seasons ago, or so it seems. This should be a fast team (considering the skaters) and even faster considering that mobile puck-moving blue-line. They are not using their speed enough and instead use a break-out system that seems to be designed FOR an older and slower team to get around defensive systems like the trap. I really think the transition is stifling the team, I think the team is doing things at a much slower pace overall including the PP, and this is why they are not getting the same quality of high danger chances (according to my own possibly terrible eyes).
I am not advocating for a change back to Hartley's system, but I do think there is merit for taking a look at how Hartley's system employed breakouts. Stop going D to D to (sometimes D again) F. Everyone on the opposing team gets back and has the time to get into their correct position awaiting the zone entry. That's what I think is the primary cause for the team to suffer from such a low shooting percentage at this point.