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GGG · 01-01-2018, 02:48 PM

I think the sports club stats model using a bell curve probability distribution under estimates teams Chances of making the playoffs. Long improbable streaks happen more often than chance would dictate so I think the low probabilities need fatter tails.

For example I would bet that 1 of the 10 teams listed in the eliminated or Red Sea will make the playoffs whereas the odds of that happening per the stats are fairly low.

01-01-2018, 02:48 PM	#8
GGG Franchise Player Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: California Exp:	I think the sports club stats model using a bell curve probability distribution under estimates teams Chances of making the playoffs. Long improbable streaks happen more often than chance would dictate so I think the low probabilities need fatter tails. For example I would bet that 1 of the 10 teams listed in the eliminated or Red Sea will make the playoffs whereas the odds of that happening per the stats are fairly low.