Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Treliving needs to start feeling the heat

Aarongavey · 12-30-2017, 07:48 PM

I suspect that Brad should start feeling the heat for one reason and one reason only, it looks like he will likely be giving up a lottery pick to Garth Snow.

For the Flames to reach 95 points now, they need to play .625 hockey the rest of the way. That is a 103 point pace.

If they lose tomorrow night, they will have to play .640 hockey to make the playoffs, or a 105 point pace. They are quickly getting into a place where it is mathematically unlikely that they will get in.

Every team currently in the playoffs in the west is playing at a 93 point pace or better, so 95 seems to be a reasonable number to make it.

Hopefully Peter Maher's "you see what you have in the 2nd 20 games" is incorrect, because right now in the second 20 games (2 remaining) the Flames are 6-8-4. If they win out, they are a. 500 team in their 2nd 20 games, if they go 1-1 they are a .450 team (or a 74 point team over a whole season) and if they go 0-2 they are a .400 team (or a 66 point team over a whole season).

In a world where the Flames go 2-2 over their next 4 games (which would be pretty good in most fans eyes), they would have to go 25-14-1 over their final 40 games to get to 95 points, or have two 20 game stretches where they go 12-7-1 in one and 13-7 in the other. This would both be better than either of the first 20 game stretches this season.

After the next 4 games the Flames have the following games against what I would call difficult teams.

Tampa
Carolina
Winnipeg
LA
Edmonton (just because of GG's record agains them)
Vegas
Tampa
Chicago
Chicago
New Jersey
NYR
NYI
Boston
Nashville
Boston
Vegas
Colorado
Dallas
Colorado
NYR
Pittsburgh
NYI
Edmonton
San Jose
Vegas
Anaheim
San Jose
LA
Columbus
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Vegas

Easier teams would be the following

Arizona
Buffalo
Ottawa
Arizona
Florida
Buffalo
Florida
Arizona

So in their final 40 games, where they have to try play better than their first 44 games, they have 8 easier games. The Flames have already finished the easy part of their schedule (Ottawa, Vancouver, Vancouver, Detroit, Detroit, Arizona, Montreal, Vancouver, Vancouver, Montreal) in their first 38 games, so they have already made their hay against those teams (going 6-4 for a. 600 winning percentage)

Tough road ahead.

12-30-2017, 07:48 PM	#344
Aarongavey Franchise Player Join Date: Jan 2014 Exp:	I suspect that Brad should start feeling the heat for one reason and one reason only, it looks like he will likely be giving up a lottery pick to Garth Snow. For the Flames to reach 95 points now, they need to play .625 hockey the rest of the way. That is a 103 point pace. If they lose tomorrow night, they will have to play .640 hockey to make the playoffs, or a 105 point pace. They are quickly getting into a place where it is mathematically unlikely that they will get in. Every team currently in the playoffs in the west is playing at a 93 point pace or better, so 95 seems to be a reasonable number to make it. Hopefully Peter Maher's "you see what you have in the 2nd 20 games" is incorrect, because right now in the second 20 games (2 remaining) the Flames are 6-8-4. If they win out, they are a. 500 team in their 2nd 20 games, if they go 1-1 they are a .450 team (or a 74 point team over a whole season) and if they go 0-2 they are a .400 team (or a 66 point team over a whole season). In a world where the Flames go 2-2 over their next 4 games (which would be pretty good in most fans eyes), they would have to go 25-14-1 over their final 40 games to get to 95 points, or have two 20 game stretches where they go 12-7-1 in one and 13-7 in the other. This would both be better than either of the first 20 game stretches this season. After the next 4 games the Flames have the following games against what I would call difficult teams. Tampa Carolina Winnipeg LA Edmonton (just because of GG's record agains them) Vegas Tampa Chicago Chicago New Jersey NYR NYI Boston Nashville Boston Vegas Colorado Dallas Colorado NYR Pittsburgh NYI Edmonton San Jose Vegas Anaheim San Jose LA Columbus Edmonton Winnipeg Vegas Easier teams would be the following Arizona Buffalo Ottawa Arizona Florida Buffalo Florida Arizona So in their final 40 games, where they have to try play better than their first 44 games, they have 8 easier games. The Flames have already finished the easy part of their schedule (Ottawa, Vancouver, Vancouver, Detroit, Detroit, Arizona, Montreal, Vancouver, Vancouver, Montreal) in their first 38 games, so they have already made their hay against those teams (going 6-4 for a. 600 winning percentage) Tough road ahead.