Quote:
Originally Posted by blender
@New Era. You make a fair point, and I'm not sure if you addressing my post specifically, but my point isn't about paying Backlund at all. I believe the team will (and should) keep him on the roster this season and deal with contract in the off season if they have to as it is playoff suicide to deal him at the deadline. The NHL is ultimately about winning and Treliving has put together a team that COULD be a winner. I don't see a scenario where moving Backlund advances that goal.
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I wasn't addressing anyone in particular, just the general lack of forethought in managing the budget and where players fit in that mix.
Here's a very realistic possibility that i think people are not considering. Say you pay Backlund the $6Mx6 that some are talking about, because he is so important to the team. Jankowski displaces him in the #2 slot, and does so next year, because he has a superior skill set. Dube comes in and during the next two seasons and proves to be the solid two way defensive center the experts think him to be, quickly evolving into that third slot and pushing Backlund down to the 4th line, like has happened to Stajan during his time in Calgary. Now you have a major problem on your hands, because you overpaid for a player based on some sentimental attachment more so than where the guy fits.
Even if you have concerns about the development of players, you still do not make a long term investment on a depreciating asset. The team would be better off dipping into the free agent market and overpaying a player on a short term contract than overpaying on a long term contract. There is the rub. Backlund is likely going to demand not only a big salary, but also term. I'd rather go with an older player on an expensive two year deal to fill that role, than blow that much money and term on a player you expect to see become a marginal player over the term of that contract.
My approach to Backlund would be simple. If he wants term, he needs to give on dollars. If he wants big dollars, he needs to give on term. I've got $18-24M to spend on him, and the term 3 to 6 years. If he wants $6M, I'll give him three years ($18M). If he wants stability I give him six years, but at $4M ($24M). If he wants something in between I give him $5.25x4 ($21M) or $4.5x5 ($22.5). All contracts front loaded and with no trade limitations in the final two years of any deal. If he doesn't go for that, I deal him and recoup the assets I have lost to date and go shopping in the free agent pool in the summer. As much as I would like to roll the dice and hope for a new deal beyond the trade deadline, the fact that all of those early draft picks have left the organization forces to me to recoup assets where possible, not bleed anymore.
One last point to make, people need to look at faceoff stats. Of the Flames centers, Backlund has the worst stats and is the only center ice man to have a percentage below 50%. Not slagging Backlund, just pointing it out.