Since the 5 - 2 loss to Philly, the Flames have allowed 3 goals or less in 8 consecutive games. In those 8 games we're 4-2-2; these games have been evenly split 4 home and 4 road. At home we're 2-2-0 and on the road we're 2-0-2
Over those games we've allowed 13 GA. That's a GA/GP of 1.63, which - over a season - would put us first in the NHL by a country mile. Over that span of time only the Predators have allowed fewer goals (12) and they've played two less games. The next-best GA since December 5th for a team who has played as many games as us is Toronto with 18 GA.
In that same span of time we've taken the most shots in the NHL - 284, we've allowed the 8th least - 208, by far the best mark for any team that's played as many games as us, the next best is Carolina who have allowed 236.
That defense people talked about at the beginning of the year has started to appear. Even though maintaining a 1.63 GA/GP for the rest of the season isn't realistic - only one team since 2000 has had a season GA/GP below 2.00 (the 2011-12 Blues at 1.89) - continued strong defensive play like this will almost certainly see wins come in.
The problem has been our ability to score goals, though it hasn't been terrible (the 6 goals against Vancouver definitely pad the stats a little). 19 GF since December 5th ties us with Florida and Toronto for 21st most in the league, but the numbers are all pretty close: the Oilers have the 10th most over that span with 23 GF.
Indeed, what we all have seen to be true is what's turned a potential 6-2 or 7-1 streak of great defense into the middling 4-2-2 we've put together: the powerplay is frigging killing us.
2 PPG in 30 chances - a 6.7% conversion rate. Shockingly, not the worst in the league - Carolina and Chicago both have connected only 4.5% of the time. But given how close these games have been, two powerplay goals at opportune times - let's say against Toronto and Minnesota - and suddenly that 4-2-2 becomes 6-2-0 and we're sitting with 41 points with a bit of breathing room in the division. That wouldn't even be a lot to ask for - we'd still have a 13.3% powerplay, 10th worst in the league, but that tiny improvement would lift us to 20-14-1. It really looks like something needs to be done with the PP - but it might just be simple bad luck.
Would it surprise anyone here to know that we've hit the crossbar and missed the most in the league since December 5th? 6 times! Second most is the Oil with 3 crossbars. How about the post? 3rd most in the league: 7 times! Only 5 teams in the league have hit the post and the crossbar 7 times combined in that span. NHL.com doesn't let you know if those shots come at 5v5 or on the PP, but I'm willing to bet at least two of them were! Imagine if four of those posts and or crossbars had gone in, we'd still have 9 combined - tied with the Bruins for 2nd unluckiest team in the league by this metric - but would we have three, four more points in the standings?
Hockey is a game of milimeters, blood, and sweat. I think it's pretty clear we're putting in the blood and the sweat. We're out shooting the league and preventing shots at a crazy level. We're preventing goals in a way that's so good it's unsustainable long-term. We're drawing more penalties than almost anyone else in the league, we do also take a fair number of penalties, but it's not eggregious and our PK is better-than-average. If we could just get ourselves to a worse-than-average-but-not-apocalyptic power play and get a few of those milimeters on our side we're looking at a team sitting very comfortably in a playoff spot.
There is a really good Calgary Flames team that - I think - is starting to emerge here. If we keep playing the way we have been, the goals and the wins will come.
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