Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovaz
To those pointing out that scoring chances are a flawed stat, I'd agree, but the results are essentially the same if you use expected goals.
How many shots are we generating and conceding? (shot attempts per 60 minutes)
CF/60: 63.63 (2nd)
CA/60: 56.33 (14th)
We direct a ton of pucks towards the other team's net, while allowing a league-average amount of shots against.
How dangerous are our shots for and against? (expected goals per shot attempt)
xGF/CF: 0.0401 (24th)
xGA/CA: 0.0398 (8th)
On average, the shots we take are slightly more dangerous than the shots we allow, but in both directions they aren't very dangerous.
How often is the puck actually going in? (goals per expected goal)
GF/xGF: 0.890 (27th)
GA/xGA: 0.981 (14th)
On average, our shots aren't going in as often as they "should" be. The other team's shots are going in about as often as they should be.
So overall: - Offensively: we generate a ton of shot attempts in the other team's zone. However, our shots aren't very dangerous overall, and even accounting for that, we're scoring fewer goals that we should be.
- Defensively: we allow a pretty average amount of zone time, but we do a good job limiting the quality of the shots against, and our goaltending has been overall league-average
Now, that totally ignores our special teams, which are a whole other mess. But 5-on-5, we've already got a positive goal differential (+2) despite struggling to finish the chances we get. If our goals/xgoal ratio normalized to 1 (which would still only rank 18th), we'd have a 5-on-5 differential of +9 which would rank 3rd league-wide. |
I just hope our coaches really look at stuff like this and try to fix our special teams, it should be all they are focusing on right now. The PP is so hard to watch some nights. Sure 10% of the time it looks dangerous, most of the time it is the same stuff and done slowly. We need hard, crisp, quick passing, I don't really see that.
I would love to see this combo on the 1st unit:
Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Ferland, Stone as the D man at the point.
Ferland in front of the net and Monahan and Chucky crashing once shots are direct to the net.
2nd unit:
Gio, Hamilton, Backlund, Janko and Bennett (mixed in with a bit of Jagr and Brodie mixed in).
We have a variety of options here but we don't see changes enough, especially this year. I get our PP was hot last year, but other teams have wised up, so this is a bit on the coaches to change things a bit more to adjust. Players need to execute but the personnel and options just aren't there right now.