Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovaz
If you want to predict future goals and wins, you're better off looking at current shots and chances than current goals.
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Incorrect. Goal differential is the 2nd best indicator of future success. Standings are the best.
Here's the major problem with predicting that the Flames should have more success; it ignores the added context of goal differential and points.
There are currently 9 teams with a goal differential at least 11 goals better than ours in our conference, and all teams in our division currently above the playoff line have at least 19 goals better goal differential. That's a pretty big gap in just 32 games.
Those numbers suggest that really
we're already lucky to not be further behind in points.. A team that has let in more goals than it has scored should have more losses than wins. (Those who haven't checked the standings, We're currently tied in wins and losses.)
In other words,
we need to score more goals and let in less goals just to keep our current pace, and our current pace is projecting to be about 7 points short of a playoff spot. That's one reason fancy stats suggesting we should score somewhat more and let in somewhat fewer goals don't comfort me that much.
(Plus there's the problem that "chances" and "dangerous chances" are pretty arbitrary stats to begin with.)