Three things...
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Originally Posted by Red
Sorry but that is not true. I have been validating my opinions with things like goal differential, goals scored, special teams etc. And I hate to break it to you but I have been right. The standings prove me right  The same standings prove the advanced stats wrong. |
So, you are declaring victory by fiat? That is generally the last resort of one whose argument has failed.
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Would I want to play LA in a playoff series right now? On paper should be a Flames sweep, right? Do we really believe that we would dominate them like that?
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I certainly believe that the Flames would beat the LA Kings in a playoff series based on the combination of their solid underlying numbers and the fact that Gulutzan's Flames has a very good record against LA.
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Bingo has compiled stats that appear to paint a picture that the team is ready to take off and be a much better team. And I don't want to completely discount it, but they have had these good underlaying numbers all season, yet they have not taken off. So I ask, can we really trust them?
Some say that the last 4 games are a sign of huge improvement. Well, we went from getting blown out to these tight games. But is losing 2-1 that much of an improvement?
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I think we can based on what has happened already in October and November. No, the Flames underlying numbers have not been good all season. Look at this visual that Bingo posted:
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Originally Posted by Bingo
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As he has demonstrated, the Flames were being pretty handily outplayed in Games #1–7 of the year, but won four of those on the strength of Mike Smith's excellent goaltending. The change started to occur in Games #8–11, which saw the Flames' underlying numbers start to consistently improve, but produced only one win. From Games #12–25 the Flames won the metrics contest more often than not, and put together a record of 9-5 to show for it.
Like I have noted a number of times now, Game #26 against Edmonton was bad. It was bad because for various reasons the Flames are coming up against a mental block when playing the Oilers. But after that game they have come out in front in the metrics of four of the next five teams, and have been rewarded with points against four out of five.
This current stretch of five games (2-1-2; GF/GA 11–12) looks very much like the stretch of Games #8–11 (1–3; GF/GA 9–13). They followed that stretch up with a 7-2-1 run in their next ten games (GF/GA 36–31).
So, yeah. I can see some trends which suggest that the team is poised to go on a run.