Here is the point contribution of the aggregated bottom six over a theoretical 82 game season. Whats clear is that collectively, the bottom six simply isn't getting it done, performing worse than under Bob Hartley in the 2015-16 season.
Id be interested to hear other posters' views on what the problem is with the bottom six.
In my view, the problem could be any of four things:
(1) Bad players
(2) Bad coaching
(3) Lack of support from the back end?
(4) Bad luck?
In my view, the issue is systemic namely because its statistically unlikely that each of the players in our bottom six would regress so rapidly at the same time. Below shows the points each player would have assuming 82 games played in each season. Note the massive regression of every player over the past year!
I believe the systemic issue of the problem makes diagnosis
(4)Bad Luck too simplistic because a bad luck streak is unlikely to impact so many different players simultaneously for such a long stretch of games.
That leaves options 1, 2 and 3. And I think the problem is a bit of each.
1) There are some bad players on the bottom six, while limit the effectiveness of the lines. Bennett is not playing like a top 9 player, which limits the effectiveness of the third line. Meanwhile, Stajan is dragging down the fourth line. I think this is why we've seen GG experiment with Versteeg on the third line (didn't work) and Hamilton/Lazar as a bottom line Center (also not working). Perhaps then, the answer is to utilize Bennett as a fourth line Center and bring in a different top-9 forward (like Hathaway or Mangiapane or a different player via trade) who pairs well with Janko and Jagr.
2) GG expects the fourth line to play a similar style to the top three lines, but its obvious that the fourth line does not have the talent do this effectively at this time. Most fourth lines in the league are energy based rather than skill based. Versteeg and Brouwer are arguably top 9 players, so perhaps the answer is to replace Stajan (an AHL calibre centreman) with a Center capable of playing top 9 minutes. Alternatively, perhaps the fourth line needs to abandon the possession game and simply revert to an energy game of get the puck in deep and hammer away at the other team. This would likely require different players than Versteeg and Stajan on the bottom line.
3) The strength of the team is on the back end (its where the money is tied up), but the back-end pairings lack chemistry and seemingly lack the freedom to play to the best of their offensive abilities. First, Hamilton, Brodie, and Gio's rushing capabilities could be activated more often, which would drive more offence. Second, the Brodie-Hamonic pairing is a disaster, while the Hamilton-Gio pairing leads to a redundancy of offensive skills set. From this perspective, Gio-Brodie / Hamilton-Hamonic makes much more sense.