Quote:
Originally Posted by kevman
To quote Itse, would making brackets from goal differential do a good job at predicting the playoffs?
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In my limited experience, they do notably better than than corsi, and actually better than combined with corsi which was surprising.
I have not done in any way a statistically valid analysis, just toyed with them a little though. I encourage people to make their own experiments, especially since there's lots of ways to do this stuff.
The experience has made me personally highly sceptical of the usefulness of corsi for these predictions. I consider it to be like plus/minus for players; uninteresting / irrelevant on its own, but if you limit the context right and combine corsi with other information, it's a neat addition to what we already have.
It's not as good as zone starts, which is another stat that's started to gain attention at the same time as corsi. Zone starts puts a number on something that I at least have a really hard time tracking just by eyeballing it.