Quote:
Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan
I think Bax showed that teams with good score adjusted Corsi have a strong correlation with winning the Stanley Cup. That works for me.
And I would happily take an imperfect correlation to make sense of the chaos over some of the things you are measuring the team by that are filtered only through your lens of experienced watching, but are unfortunately, completely unquantifiable.
Do I disagree with any of the things you find lacking? No, but since there's little in the way of quantifiable data on that, we're left with a he said/she said difference of opinion on what makes Gulutzan a good coach or not. Would I like to see improvements on those things over the year? Sure, but a lot of that is secondary to winning games.
For me, I'm a results oriented person. If Gulutzan gets them into a strong playoff position and they have a good showing in the playoffs this year (meaning that they win a round or two), then I'm satisfied that he's done his job. How he gets there is irrelevant to me. Plus, if you really watch other teams over the course of the year, and not just the odd game here or there, but really follow another team consistently, you'll see that these inconsistencies plague ALL teams now. There are few teams who play the right way every night and are just unlucky to lose. The days of parity mean that a small difference in play from night to night or from shift to shift can mean winning or losing.
If you end up on the right side of that parity far more often than not, you're doing well enough in my books.
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What? No he didn't. You're a doctor, right? So I assume you have a strong working knowledge of statistics. If so, you should be able to clearly see that he did no such thing. Not at all. Not even close. What he showed is that 3 really good teams also had good corsi numbers. Are there Stanley Cup winners with bad corsi numbers? (yes) Are there terrible teams with good corsi numbers? (yes). There
is no strong correlation for him to show. There is a fairly weak correlation between winning and corsi, but there is no strong correlation between corsi and winning Stanley Cups.
As to your last sentence, I don't think you really believe that. A team 'on the right side of parity' but underperforming its potential, is not doing well enough in my books.