Quote:
Originally Posted by Finger Cookin
It's basically because the schedule for the remainder of the season is harder than it has been so far, based on the standings at this exact moment. And also 61 games is a lot of time for a lot of things to go wrong or to change.
SCS just runs the numbers as they sit through millions of simulations to derive its numbers. I think it's a neat exercise. But it's not the be all and end all of how the season will go, either.
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Yeah, I get how sports club stats puts the numbers together, but intuitively the odds shouldn't go down for a team that's currently in a spot where other teams they'll be competing with need to pass them or in the case of the Oilers and Phoenix, go on improbable runs.
At the beginning of the season every team (theoretically) has equal chances of making the playoffs. Now we're 1/4 of the way in and you're in a playoff spot, intuitively your chances should go up, not down because teams need to pass you and other teams have worse odds.
If you did a CP poll on the odds the Flames made the playoffs at this point in the season they'd probably be a bit more confident at this point in the season than at the beginning, and probably rate it as a higher chance than 46%.
IDK. Just saying it seems odd.
It's like when the fancy stats don't match what you're seeing.