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Playoff chances wise, the Flames start the season with a 53.33% (8 out 15 teams qualify) chance of making the playoffs. At just past the quarter way point, the Flames now stand a 46.7% chance (weighted) or a 59.6% chance (coin flip) chance of making the playoffs. They haven't made any ground, but they haven't dug a hole either. In fact, if the remaining 3/4 play out the exact same way, the Flames will finish with 96-97 points, which should all but guarantee playoff hockey in April.
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I don't understand how they're on pace for 96-97, are in a playoff spot right now, but weighted, have a less than 50% chance to make the playoffs.
Shouldn't their odds be better than at the beginning of the season given some teams are essentially out of the running at this point? (Phoenix, Edmonton, etc)