Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Well first of all I'm not doing anything with the stats but looking them up. They are what they are. Everyone sees a game differently, but the stats happen to back up what I'm seeing these days. But I'm not altering or editing in any way to prove a point.
Monahan is Monahan, I don't disagree. But the Flames have half a roster shooting at a level that is unsustainable bad. The league averages 8% five on five, and 9.5% in all situations through the last 5 seasons. If you're way under that with an NHL roster it's likely to change.
There will be always be outliers for sure, and I don't disagree with that, but just as I didn't think Mike Smith would stay at .960 for a save percentage all season, I was pretty sure the Flames wouldn't stay at 5% in shooting percentage either.
What happened this week? Smith leaking a bit, and the Flames scoring, both trending back towards the mean.
The Flames rode Smith to a 4-2-0 record that they didn't deserve.
Then they went 2-4-0 when they were actually playing much better.
Happens.
Right now they are trending positive in most fashions based on the numbers. But up to you if you a) don't agree or b) see it differently.
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That's a great explanation and I take your point on things moving towards the mean and creating scoring chances being a positive measure. And I'm not accusing you of cherry-picking stats, just saying that you can't look at the one thing (scoring chances) and ignore the others (low shooting percentage and low goal-scoring output) and just chalk it up to luck.
You're right. Things will even out to some degree over the course of a season but some teams will have better shooting percentages and save percentages than others that make the ultimate difference in a given game, in the standings, in a series. I agree with you given what you've pointed out that the Flames will likely start getting better results if they keep up with current trends but I'm not confident that the Flames have enough skill to match the best teams with their current roster.
But this is a thread about Gulutzan and I have to concede you've made a good case that he's doing a better job than I felt he was doing given that they're doing a good job creating quality scoring chances. I think where he's still weak, and this may harder to quantify, is whether he has the team dialled in when it really matters, and putting out the right players at the right times.