[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mike F

There's been a lot of talk about shooting percentage in this discussion, and whether Calgary's is unsustainably low and Tampa's is unsustainably high. Having watched a lot of Calgary's games and some of Tampa's games, to me the differences in office can be chalked up to two things: more elite finishers on Tampa's team, and a lot more High-quality chances. The lack of elite finishers (of which I only include Monahan on Calgary's side) falls on the shoulders of Treliving. As I've gone on about at length earlier in the year, he chose to spend a lot of resources making Calgary's rich defence even richer, and neglected their lack of scoring upfront. And I don't think Jagr was the answer to what ailed them - He still a great possession guy, but isn't going to be finishing a lot of plays from 20 feet out.

More relevant to this discussion though, is the fact that the Flames don't seem to be generating a lot of high quality scoring chances, even in those periods when they're getting a lot of good possession. Their powerplay is a prime culprit of this. Conversely, Tampa seems to be able to move the puck into dangerous areas with relative ease. Obviously, a team that throws a lot more pucks on net from low-quality areas is always going to have a very low shooting percentage, and is not going to regress to the mean if that doesn't change. The last time I brought this up, your research revealed that they were fourteenth in the league in high quality scoring chances for. What is the trend in that area?

Just as importantly, Calgary's vaunted defence (again, to my eye, without having advanced stats available) doesn't seem to be doing the expected elite job of preventing high quality scoring chances. Is that the case as per advanced stats? And what is the trend in that area?

These latter two areas, generating high quality scoring chances and preventing them, can be tied directly to coaching and the system put in place. And that's why Gulutzen has always failed the eyeball test with me – they just never seem to consistently transition from defence to offense and set up in the offensive zone. And too often cracks in their defence are exploited for good periods of possession and good chances against.

Finally, I'm surprised so many people are so accepting of this team still "going through a process of finding their game" and okay with the notion that they'll look like a team that shouldn't fire their coach by Christmas.

This is a Flames team that has which has its long term core completely locked up and healthy, and it's year 2 of Gulutzen's tenure. Not only that, but as I've said about the Oilers team last year, we could Currently be looking at the best flames roster were going to see in the next 3 to 5 years. With Backlund still on a reasonable contract, Tkachuk and Jankowski on their entry-level deals, etc., this could be the most talent the flames will ever be able to afford to ice. For people to be accepting of them muddling along at .500, even if they do trend better at some points, baffles me.

Stats can only go so far, but some of your questions can be answered.

Scoring Chances:

5 on 5 the Flames are 10th in the NHL generating 11.6 high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of five on five hockey.

On the powerlay the Flames are ranked 12th with 23.6 high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes on the powerplay (with 6 minutes a night that's essentially 23.6 every ten games or 2.4 per game)

The Bolts are 22nd in 5 on 5 scoring chances per 60 minutes at 10.3, 1.3 per game behind the Flames.

The Bolts are 4th in powerplay scoring chances though with 27.7 per 60 minutes which is roughly 2.8 per game (averaging) or .4 per game more than the Flames.

So the scoring chances are actually higher for the Flames in the average game.

Shooting percentage:

The Flames have a scoring chance conversion rate of 9.86% five on five, and 13.51% on the powerplay which is 25th and 23rd ranked respectively.

The Bolts are 16.41% (3rd) five on five and 18.37% (14th) on the powerplay.

Conclusion:

Hard to make any really. The Flames are certainly generating chances a better clip than you are seeing, but there are no stats to determine who has the most talent to finish.

I would say however, that it takes more talent to generate a chance than it necessarily takes to finish a chance, so I think the answer isn't simply "they Lightning have better players", but also the Lightning are getting some bounces over a relatively small sample size so far.

To each their own to interpret though.