Since we are bringing up predictions, I want to bring up something I posted in the offseason (While being called a troll!)
Quote:
Last year we needed to win a wildcard game with the following happening:
1. Sanchez going 15-2, Now I think he's terrific. But its almost impossible to improve on.
2. Happ going 20-4. Almost impossible to improve on.
3. All 5 starters staying healthy.
4. Finding Benoit who has a 0.38 ERA and Grilli at 3.64 (And a most were his 3 bad outings)
5. Finding a rule 5 reliever who could contribute lots of quality innings.
6. Brett Cecil, who although I think is def overpaid, has a team think he is valuable enough to pay 7.5 Mil a year, being our top lefty
So it's impossible in my mind the argue the existing pitchers we have on this roster can outproduce the pitchers last season (Maybe Liriano over Dickey picks up a few wins)
With baseball it's about playing the odds over the full season. What's most likely to happen next season:
1. Our top two pitchers have a 35-6 record (85 winning %) OR that they regress
2. Estrada continues to dominate and even improve on his changeup OR his back injury and age catch up to him
3. All 5 starters stay healthy or 1-2 get injured for extended periods of time.
4. We find 2 free bullpen guys who put up insane #'s for the rest of the season completely turning their seasons around OR we pick up castoffs who continue to be castoffs
5. Biagini takes the next step forward OR returns to being a rule 5 guy/regresses a bit
6. We replace Cecil with a cheaper option who put up the same numbers as Cecil OR we have an issue filling the spot.
Of course anything CAN happen. However, it is going to take a lot of luck and good things for this team to make the playoffs.
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1. Nailed it. Sanchez had injuries and won one game.
2. Nailed it. Back injury caught up to Estrada and he was terrible for parts of the season.
3. Nailed it. Injures decimated our starting rotation
4. Wrongish : Grilli was terrible, but Tepera and Barnes were great.
5. Nailed it. 3-13 5.34 ERA. Probably wasn't used properly but results are results.
6. Nailed it - Sorta. Joe Smith was traded mid season and J.P Howell was cut. Cecil wasn't great either though for St.L
Ugh, Wish I had been wrong about more