[GranteedEV]

We're just going to have to agree to disagree on UPSIDE. Backlund might be a realistic outcome for Jankowski. A ceiling, he is not. I'm not sure Backlund is Backlund's ceiling, though... there's an argument to be made that he is grossly underutilized by the Flames.

Also you can't just ignore the fact that those star players (Spezza/Thornton etc) were playing hundreds of major junior games before their pro debuts. The best way to improve is to play high level games, and Jankowski didn't do that until college. His entire college career amounts to a shade over two long OHL seasons, which most major junior prospects have completed by the time they're eighteen. It And finally Spezza's big AHL season was neither his rookie pro season (it was the lockout season and that was the only reason he played in that league) and we don't have access to important information from that team (like, for example, Spezza's Time On Ice) to compare apples to apples - in fact given the era difference you can't really compare at all as that was an era where guys like Ladislav Smid were considered blue chip defensve prospects and guys like Spezza took full advantage. Comparing scoring totals for prospects is futile, too many important factors are shoved under the rug.

I don't know what Jankowski will become in the NHL. I do know he has the skill to be something special. I don't pretend to have the gift of clairvoyance to know what that means. I do know that I don't put much stock into his college or even AHL scoring, because too many factors are unknown.