Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
^I would say that a significant increase in PP time per game on the first unit is probably the best way for him to score goals, as a net front presence. But I'm not even sure I want him in that role, to be honest.
Literally the opposite. I said exactly the opposite of "look at stats in a vacuum". I asked you why you think he's going to score at the rate you seem to think he'll score. Give me some reason for thinking that.
You don't just put a guy on a line with good players and suddenly more goals happen. If more goals happen, it's either because he's now getting more shots, or more of his shots are going in the net. There's only two options here.
If you think more of his shots are going to go in, why? He was already at a ridiculous shooting rate last year, higher than Monahan's, and only scored 15 goals. Now you say you think he'll score 20+. Do you think he's a better shooter than Monahan, and likely to get even better, up into Marchand or Stamkos territory? Because if so, I do not share your opinion of Ferland's offensive talent. I think he's maybe a slightly above average shooter if he avoids trying to shoot from distance and focuses on banging in loose pucks, but maybe I've missed something.
Do you think he's going get to shoot far more often than last year? First, do you want him to be the guy on that line taking shots, as opposed to Gaudreau or Monahan? Second, if you do and you think he'll be able to up his shot count, by how much? Even assuming his shooting percentage stays static (which for the above reasons seems unlikely), his shot rate per game would need to go up a huge amount year over year. What makes you think that will happen?
Seriously, this actually requires at least some reasoning. I'm not even saying you're wrong, I'm just asking what your basis is for believing what you say you believe.
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For me the goals increase will be from a result of better linemates + a lot more shots. Last season he had 106 shots which is less that the year before of 122 with 5 more games played. For the season he only averaged just over 11 minutes of ice-time. Staying on the first line all season (which is an assumption to get 20+ goals) he should be looking at a 40% increase in icetime to the 14-15 min range. I'd say that should get him an extra 40-50 shots alone. Add in that the first line is more offense focused than say the fourth line. Instead of focusing on dumping, protection and energy his job will now be scoring, that I think should add another 20 or so shots.
As a trigger-man on that line with Monahan I expect 170-180 shots from him over the season. Which yes, is almost double his production last year, but I think that his new role will allow for it. I can see a drop in shooting %, but when you look at players who score over 20 goals a year, low teens isn't unheard of depending on their style. Last year he seemed more like a player that waited for his shot instead of constantly just putting pucks on net like the year before.
So 14.5 mins of icetime, around 180 shots and a drop to 12-13% shooting should give him just over 20 goals. I see Ferland as a players who is still in his growth curve and last year was more indicative of what he is able to do.