Quote:
Originally Posted by Finger Cookin
Just for kicks, here's my knee jerk goal projections (guesses)
SNIP
Total GF: 207
Seems reasonable?
|
No, doesn't seem reasonable at all. Those are the same or worse numbers for almost everyone in down years. Seems unlikely, especially the way the team played in the last 40 versus the first 40 game. The Flames scored 226 in a down year for many of their big scorers. My kick:
Gaudreau 25/30 - Monahan 30/35 - Ferland 20/25
Gaudreau and Monahan both suffered through injuries last season, and Gaudreau was slow out of the gate as a result of the contract debacle. Gaudreau is motivated and that means good things. Definitely bigger numbers from him, meaning bigger numbers from a healthier Monahan. Ferland is going to surprise the crap out of people this year. I have a feeling this is going to be his breakout season and he's going to be a force on this line. I think I may be too conservative on this projection. I think this is going to be one of the best lines in the game this season and be a scoring machine. (75-90 as a line)
Tkachuk 20/30 - Backlund 15/20 - Frolik 15/20
I fully expect Backlund to take a step backward this year. He was awesome last year and had a career year. I don't expect a repeat of that performance. I don't see a huge drop off though. Frolik is what he is. He is a 15-20 goal guy and has been for the past four seasons. I see nothing that would indicate he is headed backwards. Every second year player has potential to see their scoring diminish as they suffer the sophomore jinx, or increased expectations. Tkachuk does not come across as a player that will wilt under the pressure of higher expectations. I think he takes the next step toward being one of the Flames highest paid players in two seasons. (50-70 as a line)
Versteeg 5/15 - Bennett 15/25 - Foo 10/15
Sam Bennett is going to score this year. How much he scores this season will be dependent on his PP time, the chemistry on his line, and their ability to dig pucks out of the corners. This is my concern on this line, they may not have someone to dig pucks out. I think they start this way but may have to play some line makeup Bingo to find the right guy to dig pucks out. Could see Brouwer, Lazar or Jankowski in the mix on this line during the season as well. This will be the nice thing about the mix they have, they have some good options in moving players around and finding chemistry. Foo, if he sticks, is going to surprise. His shot is sneaky quick and appears to be heavy. He seems to surprise goaltenders with his release and pucks get through. I think it just depends on whether the coaches are convinced of his two-way play to make the team. Versteeg is Versteeg. He'll get some PP time and he'll chip in offense here or there. I think his production will be down as I don't think he's going to be relied upon as much as he was last season. (25-45 as a line)
Lazar 5/10 - Jankowski 10/15 - Brouwer 10/15
I don't see this a 4th line with limited ice time. I see these as guys that will be moving parts and could play on other lines throughout the season. I think that as a line they will be very good and provide some offense on their own, but because of injuries and cold performances, these guys will find their scoring predominantly in other roles. As a line I expect them to play hard and chip in where they can. (20-25 goals as a line)
Hamilton, Stajan, and other call-ups - 10/15 over the season
Forward goals - 185-195.
Giordano 10/15 - Hamilton 10/15
Brodie 5/15 - Hamonic 5/10
Kulak 5/10 - Stone 0/5
Wotherspoon and defensive callups over the season - 0/5
I think our reliance on defensemen to score will be less this year. I don't expect them see a significant drop in scoring I think we see about the same from the past couple of years, it will just be more distributed. (40-45 goals from the blueline)
Total GF: 225-235, which should put them top of the middle tier of teams in the league.
If things come together and players play to their ability, I would not be surprised to see this lineup come closer to 250 goals, and be in the middle of the top 10 in goal scoring. While everyone is gooing over McJesus in Edmonton, this team will be quietly turning into a top end team similar to the '89 cup team in makeup. The pieces just need to be put in the right places.