[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This was made public because it is primarily a political decision. Sure, the logistics are important, but it will mostly come down to which city wants it the most and is willing to cut them the best deal.

Okay, this we can agree upon. This is about extracting the best deal possible from any government, no doubt. And yes, this is very political. So how do you think it is going to sell in the United States if Amazon sends 50,000 jobs to Canada to service the greater United States? I think it needs to be made abundantly clear that Amazon generates 66% of its worldwide revenues from the United States. Canada falls into the "rest of the world slice," accounting for only 6.9% of revenues.



So recognizing this, how is that going to play politically in the United States?

So it is entirely reasonable to discuss Calgary as a possible destination, because Calgary has two things that make it potentially hungry enough to make an aggressive bid: high current unemployment, and a need to diversify the economy.

I disagree. This is like saying its reasonable to discuss the possibility for Calgary to host the summer Olympics or the World Cup. Sure, there is an incredibly small chance that it could happen, but you would have to ignore so many factors to have the discussion it is just pure fantasy. The odds are so stacked against that outcome.

Yes, Calgary should bid for it. They would be insane not to buy a ticket on this lottery. Who doesn't buy a ticket when the lottery is over $500M? But they should also be realistic in the chances of this happening and not invest a lot of time or money in the process. It would be wonderful to address the current unemployment situation, and diversify the economy, but maybe they should take some baby steps first, and not shoot for the moon?

Calgary has the youngest and most highly educated populace in Canada. And considering that Canada is better educated than the US in the aggregate, I think it is safe to assume that Calgary would compare favourably to most US cities in that regard as well.

According to StatsCan Calgary is third in the country.

"Among the six largest CMAs (Toronto, Montréal, Vancouver, Ottawa#-#Gatineau, Calgary and Edmonton), Ottawa#-#Gatineau had the largest proportion of adults with a university degree at 38.2%, followed by Toronto at#36.8%#and Calgary at 34.8%. Ottawa#-#Gatineau had the largest proportion of adults with a university degree among#all CMAs."

That 34.8% rate is indeed impressive. Is it that much different from a US city, like Dallas/Ft. Worth? Just a hair more actually. DFW comes in at 32% of the population with a bachelor's degree or better, and depending on the part of the metro area, that can go as high as 84%. But as a whole, we'll go with 32% for working numbers.

StatsCan says that Calgary has 874,000 people between the ages of 15 and 65. So that would mean Calgary has roughly 304,000 people with a bachelors degree.

For comparison, DFW has 4,806,700 people between the ages of 15 and 65. So that would put the number of people with a bachelor's degree or better in the neighborhood of 1,538,144, or over five times as many as Calgary. That's actually more people than population of Calgary.

On the age thing, Calgary's median age is 36.4, versus the DFW median of 34.7, not that I think this matters in any way.

Also, Calgary is in the unique position that much of its well educated workforce is currently unemployed. Typically, the unemployed ranks are dominated by the unskilled and poorly educated. But Calgary currently has an army of engineers, professionals, and well trained people out of work. I doubt there is another city in NA in a comparable situation.

You think Calgary is the only city with an unemployment or under-employment problem? The United States tracks underemployment statistics and it is currently sitting at 14%. Not only that, half of US workers consider themselves underemployed.

As for your rebuttal (New Era) that the workforce is mostly in one industry, and thus its this just illustrates your personal bias to mold the facts to your own narrative. You yourself have argued as loudly as anyone on these threads that Alberta needs to diversify the economy. This is precisely what the Amazon opportunity would be about. Also, regardless of the fact that there are large fluctuations in demand for labour in Calgary because of the volatile nature of the O&G industry, the fact of the matter is that the availability does exist at the moment. And that's the important thing, no?

I have been very vocal in stating that Alberta should diversify its economy. Is this the brass right to be grabbing for to fix that problem? Or should Alberta look internally and grow their own solution? As I said, it doesn't hurt to reach out and voice interest, but it is also reasonable to recognize your chances and consider how you want to invest your time and energy. There are better opportunities out there that can help diversify the economy while encouraging consumers to use Alberta's primary driver of the economy.

The idea that Calgary would look at this as on opportunity to diversify the economy, and thus might have the motivation to bid aggressively, suggests that it is entirely reasonable to be having this discussion.

Reasonable? Again, I disagree. The politics alone make this a non-starter. Then you go into the competition from American cities and it becomes even more difficult to find believable. That isn't a slight against Calgary or Calgarians either. It's just reality. And I would say the exact same thing about a number of American cities as well. Its interesting to talk about, but the exercise should be more in understanding the areas where Calgary would have to grow and step up to attract this level of business more so than thinking it is currently possible to compete.