Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
Trump doesn't need 50% i think that is his point. At 37% he's still in the game fighting to a draw. Yes many factors can change from now til 2018.
OR if the youth of America show up to vote the Democrats win by a mile. The area by far the most liberal or inclusive group.
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See, when you say "at 37% he's still in the game" that suggests to me that you are confusing the effect of Trump at the mid-terms, and the likelihood of Trump being re-elected in 2020. They are not the same thing, simply because Trump won't be on the ballot in 2018.
Some things to keep in mind:
- historically, sitting presidents lose seats at mid-terms. If all things were equal, you would expect the GOP to lose some congressional seats and at least one of the two vulnerable Senators.
- at 37%, all things are not equal. At 25% Trump is a millstone. That is wave territory to the extent that he matters at all.
- we don't know if Trump matters in 2018. Maybe voters see him and the GOP as distinct. If so, maybe none of this makes any difference. We will see.
- (this is the important one): if he goes into re-election with approval ratings lower than his "strongly disapprove" numbers (which is currently the case), then he is not "fighting to a draw." He is looking at a humiliating defeat.
Here is the MOST important point: he is not at 37% anyway. Gallup's latest numbers have him at 34%, and he is trending downward. He's in trouble. This notion that there can be a winning coalition consisting of only 34% of likely or registered voters is, I'm sorry, a fantasy.