Quote:
Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout
So the "kidnapping" of Lyanna was basically like the assassination of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand. It was the event that started a war that was going to happen anyway. If Lyanna wasn't "kidnapped" Robert's Rebellion still would have happened in some form, just as WWI would have still happened in some form if Princip didn't pull the trigger.
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No, Robert's Rebellion or any Rebellion likely would not have happened without Lyanna's "kidnapping". Everyone in the realm seemed to love Rhaegar and were just waiting for the Mad King to die (or be ruled incompetent) so that Rhaegar could take over.
Once Lyanna disappeared, people began to wonder if Rhaegar was actually the sweet and caring man that they thought he was. Also, he disappeared and wasn't around to explain his actions, which left the Mad King to respond to things in his own way.
Because of all the alliances the Starks had, Lyanna was really the worst person who Rhaegar could have chosen. She had already been engaged to Robert Baratheon. Robert and Ned had grown up together at The Eyrie as wards of Jon Arryn. Ned's older brother had been engaged to Catelyn Tully, so there was already an alliance between the North and Riverlands too.
When the Mad King executed Ned's father and brother, the Starks, Arryns, Baratheons, and Tullys all joined together to declare war against the Crown. That was four of the nine main noble houses in Westeros. The Lannisters and Greyjoys stayed out of the conflict until after Rhaegar was defeated. That left the Tyrells and Martells on the side of the Targaryens.
If Rhaegar had instead run off with Cersei or a member of the House Tyrell or any other lower house, the reaction may have been very different and there may never have been a Rebellion. Hell, Tywin might have been happy if Rhaegar had run off with Cersei.