Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
And fundementaly EVs will not kill Albertas economy by 2030.
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I also want to champion this statement.
We have a wide range of hydrocarbon resources in Alberta which can be placed into 2 simplified but accurate categories.
1. The Oil Sands
2. The Deep Basin
With respect to the oil sands, what we're seeing is a consolidation of control from many companies including multinationals towards Canadian super majors. Suncor, CNRL, Cenovus. These companies are now in the position where they can use their size to generate sustained and controlled growth. In addition, they are continuing to test new technologies that may reduce the dependence on steam (water and heat) making them more economic, less environmentally damaging. To boot, the majority of the oil sands are not mines either, but SAGD, which is much less impactful from a surface perspective. Everyone is presuming that EV's and batteries are going to get cheaper through innovation, well why not in the oil sands too? Coupled with carbon capture, and the oil sands could be a lot less "dirty" than many think. More on this later.
With respect to the deep basin, it's got assets that rival a lot of the shale plays in the US with respect to gas production, but it lacks hydrocarbon liquids (Propanes, Butanes, and Pentanes+) and light crudes. These liquids/oils are the current driving force behind the majority of the shale boom south of the border. The gas they could give away and they would still be making money. This sets us up in the short term to take a bit of a hit - but in the long run we've got significant gas assets that surpass many of the Americans. Again, there are concerns about fracing and water usage, but if we assume that battery density will be improved with innovation, why not water treatment and fracing?
Which brings me to my conclusion. I think the world needs to understand that even once we start to ween ourselves off of using oil directly for transportation in the form of gasoline or diesel, we're still going to need hydrocarbons for plastics and lubricants. But as we switch over to EV's, I think natural gas can be an excellent on-demand/base load power generation fuel - as do many current power utilities (see Transalta Renewables). When you couple that with carbon capture at scale, I think it can be a very cost effective source of power generation for all the EV's that we'll be using. Luckily we have a lot of natural gas to use!
So where do we as Canadians or as North Americans want to get the hydrocarbon resources that we'll still need? Do we want to get it from Russia or Saudi Arabia or Venezuela - countries with poor environmental, safety or human rights records? Or from somewhere that is doing it responsibly.
Watch:
Peter Tertzakian
And then finally, as if and when we innovate our battery technology and move towards that EV reality, maybe we'll also end up innovating our building materials for vehicles and buildings. Maybe these building materials will end up requiring a high carbon source... and suddenly natural gas becomes the feed stock for something else.
I think it's safe to believe that if you assume only batteries will evolve, our oil and gas industry will cease to exist. But that ignores the fact that the rest of the world is changing too - and the industry will exist in some some shape or form.
I encourage everyone to follow the XPRIZE for Carbon.
Carbon XPRIZE
It has the opportunity to create a whole new industry in Alberta, and the rest of the world in the next 10 years. It might not... but the same thing could happen with battery technology.
Or hey. Maybe the super volcano in Yellowstone will erupt and potentially plunge the world into another ice age. A lot can happen in the future... just don't blindly count us (Alberta Oil and Gas) out.