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Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!
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I think that the American's have to remember how tough the whole "Scud" hunt was in the gulf war.
As nice as it is to say they won't last 15 minutes and it sounds great. If the North Koreans get the preemptive strike in with a time on target artilly barrage of lets say half of their guns with a poor performance of 2 rounds per minute. Seoul would be hit by 10,000 artillary rounds with a predermined mixture of air ground, chemical, sub munitions and possibly biological weapons.
Against a military target that's no big deal, against a civilian population center your looking at what Berlin looked like after nights of continuous nightly bombings by the Allies. Plus an overwhelmed health system, especially if nerve gas or biological agents are used. Add to that civilian panic.
If the strike is going to happen to be fair, the militarily smart move is to do it now and erase their ability to manufacturer warheads and do it before they finalize miniaturization.
On top of that, its not like all of the North Korean artillary is out in nice neat rows on the open. They have a mixture of mobile shoot and scoot weapons, standard pieces and also deeply fortified pieces in the mountains.