Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
Here's the last year's worth of holidays on top of the price chart...
It would be a lot easier to pinpoint the dates if you could select specific dates for the charts, but this is the best I could do for the 1 year chart.
Last year, Heritage Day landed on August 1, just before the chart starts. The end of the chart represents this year's long weekend.
The green bar represents when most Calgary schools were on spring break. Although not technically a holiday, I also included the start of Stampede Week.
Last year, Labour Day was in the middle of a period where the price was declining.
In addition to this week, there were price jumps prior to Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's, Easter, Canada Day, and Stampede. There was a jump just prior to Mother's Day too.
There was also a jump at the end of the Family Day weekend, and jumps during Spring Break and the Victoria Day weekend. |
This illustrates it nicely, doesn't it? Its honestly exactly the visual representation of what this thread was about, long weekend, HUGE hike, and then correction to the norm.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
Go into gas buddy and plot crude vs gas price for the month of July for Calgary. Comeback and post it here with your explanation for the pricing changes.
Then go read the report I linked and it's conclusions and post a rebuttal to it. Or present other research to support your case.
Saying gas prices went up 20 cents and Facebook agrees with me is not a credible arguement. Gas went down May long and it went down in the middle of the Canada Day weekend. It's odd they would #### us on the Friday when we are driving out but not on the Monday when we are driving home. That seems like a wierd policy.
Also why not just leave it high? It's fixed anyways right
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Cool, you've got one weekend that it went down, IIRC on Sunday, after having increased that Wednesday I believe. Your point isn't being proven any more than mine is in your eyes. If you like to continue to keep backing up the industry, please do, but you don't have to discount the fact that every other person here is saying hey, its another long weekend, look at that HUGE hike. Nobody is saying that gas doesn't go up and down, of course it does, but a fluctuation of 88.9 to 92.9 is plenty different from 88.9 to 104.9 overnight, and it invokes an entirely different reaction from anybody who is a consumer. That isn't unique to gas either, if you had other commodities that get consumed on a large scale basis that did that swing, there would be equal reactions. You don't see the price of coffee increasing on a Sunday because more people are out brunching and socializing.
Crude correlation is another funny argument to me, it was brought up earlier in the thread that there was a price level attached with a certain crude price, and then that seems to have "broken" when crude crashed and gas stayed high-ish (relative to the price vs. crude correlation from before that time, ie: $100-140 mark). Now that delta is much larger, and its fine to say that gas price does follow crude price, albeit loosely, but you can't argue against the fact that we are not paying the prices we were when crude used to be $50, we are still paying what it was at $100. The downward correction didn't happen, it just never came, and we've adjusted to the high price as being normal. People are afraid of what would happen should crude head back to $90+, and rightfully so, that gap is larger and the price will float that same gap to even higher prices.
Now, I agree there is an increase in demand on a long weekend, yes more people drive, but does a 4 day increase actually reflect the impact on supply or storage? Hell no, that gas is going to get sold anyhow, and there is still a huge amount of refined fuel in storage, and that which is sold will be made up again. Increasing the price does nothing to "help supply", it is simply a greedy capitalistic tactic to profit from those times that more gas will be sold. That gas costs the same to produce as the gas the week before, and the week after (minus the minor fluctuations in crude price and exchange) but even then its a futures market so the gas you're buying was paid for long before. I think its funny they use spot pricing on a commodity bought on a futures market