Quote:
Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood
The thing is Backlund is on another level than any of those guys you listed when it comes to two way hockey. Look at his zone starts. Always starts in the D zone, yet still put up 53 points. If his line got the zone starts that the Monahan line gets he would put up many more points.
He was the MVP of the Flames last year. The most important player for this team. 6x6 seems about right to me.
|
Alright that is a valid point.
Backlund had 57 points at 5v5 over the last two seasons with only 26% of his faceoffs being in the offensive zone.
Of guys who start 20-30% of their shifts in the d-zone that ranked 6th overall - so pretty good.
Direct comparables who aren't on a bridge/RFA/ELC are, that had similar point totals, and only had 20-30% o-zone starts:
Dubinsky - 59 points - $5.85M
Kadri - 59 points - $4.5M
Kesler - 58 points - $6.9M
Palmieri - 58 points - $4.65M
J. Staal - 57 points - $6.0M
Huberdeau - 57 points - $5.9M
M. Koivu - 55 points - $6.75M
So a bit of a range in the contracts of these guys: $4.5M - $6.9M.
The guys who got contracts in the higher end (Kesler, Koivu) both had seasons over 70 points at the time of their contracts so not directly comparable.
Huberdeau/Staal aren't the best comparables since they signed long term deals coming out of their ELC - so some RFA years in there and teams probably projected some offensive improvement.
Dubinsky might be the best comparable at $5.85M. Would have been UFA when he signed the contract and coming off a 50 point season, and then a pro-rated 63 point season (injury).
Kadri, & Palmieri,are probably what the Flames will try to use as comparables - especially Kadri since they seem to be fans of his play.
Kadri had 1 year left until UFA and was coming off of seasons of 50/39/45 points.
Palmieri had 1 year left until UFA and was coming off seasons of 29 points (41 prorated to full season) and 57 points when he signed.
So in the end it will probably be between $5.0 to $6.0 for the AAV, but $6.0 feels on the higher end of the spectrum to me.
Two guys that signed this off-season that weren't quite as productive as Backlund.
- Hanzal - 47 5v5 points - 30% offensive zone starts - $4.75M
- Bonino - 47 5v5 points - 28% offensive zone starts - $4.1M
Probably the lower end of the scale for what you could expect.