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Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
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I read bloomberg a lot - I find their pieces to be more positively biased towards EV's, Solar, Wind, Clean etc. So it's important to remain disciplined when reading their opinions.
With respect to the article, I agree that costs will decrease, but the extrapolation is very similar to what the IEA or whatever other organization does with respect to global oil demand. It's based on a certain set of assumptions that may or may not be achievable/factual.
For example, I wonder in this future EV world, is their enough latent capacity for Li and other base elements that go into battery manufacturing. Or will their have to be expansions and greenfield development? In other words - will their be a scarcity - like recently in oil - that raises the cost of batteries until supply increases. (I honestly have no idea - so if someone knows, let me know)
We're going through the same thing in the oil & gas industry, there was deflation as a result of the oil glut recession but are those prices completely sustainable? Already service companies in the US are saying that at current activity levels, they are going to have to start raising costs. A lot of what the Shale Players tout as "sub 40$ cost of supply" is predicated on their capital costs remaining low/tied to inflation. If service company costs increase faster than inflation - we'll need to see oil stay above $40 for those wells to be profitable.
Again, I fully agree that battery technology will be cheaper in the future, but cheaper than an ICE car? without a subsidy or rebate? bold steps.
Plug-in hybrids? These make sense, so much sense it's unreal that they don't get more love. Especially here in Canada with winter driving, long distances, etc. I do not want to drive to Edmonton in the middle of winter with a theoretical 400 km range (in the best conditions).