Originally Posted by GranteedEV
TThe numbers and the "belief" create a cognitive dissonance.
A lot of opinions say we "need" a shutdown defenseman, not an offensive defenseman, because Brodie, Giordano, Hamilton already put up points.
The numbers say we "need" an offensive defenseman because Brodie-Stone/Wideman were some of the worst shot generation bottom four defenses in the NHL.
All things considered (Quality of Teammate, Quality of Competition) TJ Brodie is pretty much top five or top ten in the league as a shot suppression guy, and we don't even need him to be because Gio/Hamilton already take on all the shutdown minutes.
Last year the Flames were top ten in shot suppression as our only center who really saw big shot totals against was Monahan, and our only pair who saw big shot totals against was Bartkowski-Engelland. Brodie-Stone saw remarkably average shot totals against (Basically Stone's bad shot suppression and Brodie's elite shot suppression cancelled each other out).
However we were bottom ten in shot generation - we did not generate shots, we limited them just fine for the most part.
IMO what we need at the four spot is a guy who
1) Is cost-effective (no anchor contract going forward)
2) Can be just average in shot suppression (which, right there, is a huge upgrade on Stone/Alzner)
3) Can generate shots, because Brodie doesn't.
4) Kills penalties, because Hamilton isn't being used in that role.
My proposal was to bring in Del Zotto. Only 26-27 years old, even though it feels he's been around forever. Not the best advanced stats, but remarkably average with a skew towards shot generation. According to Flyers fans he's been strong defensively under Hakstol, but not the offensive guy he used to be in the past. Historically he's been productive though, which I think people are mistakenly underrating. Has statisically been Philly's 3rd best penalty killing D over the last three years by goals and their second best penalty killing D by shot attempts. Can skate.
I've seen Franson thrown around as a top four option. I want him too - on our third pair, but I'm not crazy about a slower player on our top four. Could work against bigger teams like Anaheim, but probably not the best option against quicker teams. But having both Franson and Del Zotto be able to play with Brodie depending on opponent would make a ton of sense. Advanced stats wise he might actually be the best D available, even including Shattenkirk who plays more sheltered minutes. But like I said, I'd feel more comfortable with:
Del Zotto-Brodie
Kulak-Franson
than most other options. Plus I like Brodie back on the right side.
Franson is also a strong penalty killer by goal/shot metrics. So we would have a top six that can kill penalties, sustain offense (which would do wonders for guys like Bennett, Versteeg and Jankowski)
But again, it comes back to cognitive dissonance. People miss Regehr. I miss Regehr too. But just because we don't have Regehr, means we need a Regehr for a complete blue line. Sure, I'd love to grab Radko Gudas or Josh Manson, those are the modern day Regehrs and guess what, they're not there in the UFA market. We tried signing a guy in that vein in Josh Healy, hopefully he lives up to the Gudas Comparision, and I am also very high on Adam Ollas Mattsson. But those are guys that you have to develop internally because teams don't just let them walk in UFA. They let Alzners and Stones walk, guys who slightly resemble that type of stay-at-home guy but ultimately spend more time chasing the play than containing it.
We have to look at what's working for other teams - Nashville with Ellis, Josi, Ekholm, and Subban, Pittsburgh with Letang, Dumoulin, Matta, Schultz, Cole. Skating and keeping the play moving forward. It's "too pretty" on paper, but it's working. That's why I want Del Zotto as our #4, and Kulak as a mainstay on the third pair. I'd love Stone back too, in the role i described above for Franson (play with Brodie against bigger teams, but not all the time). Having offensively productive defenseman is not an unnecessary thing - most championship teams get a LOT of offense from the blue line. It' s just too hard to score out of the cycle, even Getzlaf, Perry, and the Sedins are struggling to do it as the league moves forward.
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