Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Why underdogs do better in hockey than basketball

bubbsy · 06-05-2017, 01:51 PM

To me it is summed up as:
1) in basketball, your 'starters' (stars) play >75% of the game. Whereas in hockey, other than the backup goalie, everyone else on the dressed roster is playing anywhere between 10% (4th line forward) to a few playing 40-50% (top pairing Dmen). The highest skilled players that are typically generating goals (top line forwards) are typically only playing 30% of the game. the elite players of the NHL, though important, have less impact on the games net result than in the NBA, simply due to the fact that they aren't on the ice long enough to determine the outcome themselves. In my view, in the NBA, the team with the best player, will usually win a series. Last year's NBA final was a prime example of that. The interesting thing is a team like the warriors who just have so many elite players, that they are able to offset this. The spurs were potentially an outlier to this, but i think tim duncan, despite the fanfare he recieves, is still a grossly underrated player over the last decade or 2.

2) Shot blocking (and goalie equipement)! I firmly believe goals are down more so in the style of defending than the goaltender equipement (though that has helped also, as it's so rare to see a great shot flat out beat a goaltender in today's game). Defense has become so much more about getting in front of any shots, so in essense, there are 6 goalies on the ice if a team is defending well (ie. not giving up rushes). More and more goals are scored off tips and lucky deflections. "throwing the puck on the net" is a cliche we hear all the time, which in itself indicates just how much lucky goals are a reality in the game. So any team can play a strong defensive game, they can hope to get some luck offensively, to win a game. The 'great' teams have enough offensive players to higher the odds of scoring as they are able to generate higher number of scoring chances (likely higher quality chances also) which give them a higher probability to win.

06-05-2017, 01:51 PM	#16
bubbsy Franchise Player Join Date: Aug 2008 Exp:	To me it is summed up as: 1) in basketball, your 'starters' (stars) play >75% of the game. Whereas in hockey, other than the backup goalie, everyone else on the dressed roster is playing anywhere between 10% (4th line forward) to a few playing 40-50% (top pairing Dmen). The highest skilled players that are typically generating goals (top line forwards) are typically only playing 30% of the game. the elite players of the NHL, though important, have less impact on the games net result than in the NBA, simply due to the fact that they aren't on the ice long enough to determine the outcome themselves. In my view, in the NBA, the team with the best player, will usually win a series. Last year's NBA final was a prime example of that. The interesting thing is a team like the warriors who just have so many elite players, that they are able to offset this. The spurs were potentially an outlier to this, but i think tim duncan, despite the fanfare he recieves, is still a grossly underrated player over the last decade or 2. 2) Shot blocking (and goalie equipement)! I firmly believe goals are down more so in the style of defending than the goaltender equipement (though that has helped also, as it's so rare to see a great shot flat out beat a goaltender in today's game). Defense has become so much more about getting in front of any shots, so in essense, there are 6 goalies on the ice if a team is defending well (ie. not giving up rushes). More and more goals are scored off tips and lucky deflections. "throwing the puck on the net" is a cliche we hear all the time, which in itself indicates just how much lucky goals are a reality in the game. So any team can play a strong defensive game, they can hope to get some luck offensively, to win a game. The 'great' teams have enough offensive players to higher the odds of scoring as they are able to generate higher number of scoring chances (likely higher quality chances also) which give them a higher probability to win.