Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunderball
Without getting into specifics... I think the midterm elections will see moderate gains by the Democrats, and possibly, a little switch in house powers. To me, the ideal would be a resulting dem/rep split of the houses... those seem to work the best in ensuring the best policy is what is being implemented, rather than partisan policy.
|
Well, I strongly suspect that's what we'll get. Even the most conservative projections show the Dems getting at least the 15 seats they'll need--Democratic candidates lead in Republican-held districts in something like 21 races, and another 20 are considered toss-ups. If you assume they split the tossups and win, say around 18 of the ones where they lead by a significant margin, that still gives you a Democratic pickup of 28 seats, which should be good for control of the House for the next while, given how rarely incumbents lose around here.
The Senate is another story. The Democrats would basically have to sweep all of the tossups in order to win control of it. In effect, that may be the endgame of the GOP in this election--keep the Senate for now and hope for better circumstances in the next cycle. Then Rove will spin it as a victory, noting that they beat the historical average of seats lost to a President's party in the mid-terms. (he will of course neglect to mention the role of gerrymandering and redistricting in that process, which has progressed to ridiculous proportions.)
As for the Senate, if you use the 50% rule, then a lot of GOP incumbents are in trouble, even if polls show a tight race. Chafee (R.I.), Burns (Montana), Talent (Missouri), Santorum (PA), and Dewine (OH), if that rule holds true, will all lose to-morrow.
That leaves the open races in Virginia and Tennessee, where the 50% rule doesn't apply as comfortably. In Virginia, it's looking likely (but not certain) that the Republican candidate (whose "macaca" comment you may remember) will go down to a narrow defeat. In Tennessee, I suspect that Corker will hold that seat for the G.O.P--the margin in recent polls has been pretty wide, and he did crack 50% twice.
But if the Democrats can win all of those and not lose New Jersey, then they narrowly win the Senate. My guess is they fall just short, losing either in Virginia or Missouri--but anything can happen, I guess.