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Originally Posted by GGG
are you arguing we have hit peak worldwide oil consumption? Because that is the only metric which affects Alberta. As that starts to decline the oil market changes drastically. I'm willing to bet worldwide oil demand continues to grow to past 2030.
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While you may be right I wouldn't bet the farm either, more and more consultants are starting to change their forecasts, one that I have some personal ties with changed their's last year and I heard they might even revise it to even more of an O&G downturn.
From Mckinsey & Company, June 2016
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Could peak oil demand be in sight?
The total demand for liquid hydrocarbons will play out as a tug of war between growth in the petrochemical sector and declining demand from passenger cars. Petrochemical feedstock will drive 70 percent of the growth in demand for liquid hydrocarbons through 2035. Demand for liquids, excluding chemicals, will peak and flatten by 2025 because of a decline in demand from light vehicles. The petrochemicals demand will drive the growth of light end products, a large share of which are not made from crude oil.
McKinsey’s latest automotive consensus suggests that by 2030, electric vehicles (including hybrids and battery-powered plug-in vehicles) could represent close to 50 percent of new cars sold in China, the European Union, and the United States, and about 30 percent globally. Also, for the first time, our business-as-usual case includes autonomous-vehicle adoption and car sharing. If the market penetration of electric, autonomous, and shared vehicles accelerates, oil demand driven by light vehicles could be approximately 3 million barrels lower in 2035 than assumed in the business-as-usual case. Together, this accelerated adoption of light-vehicle technologies and the adjustment of plastics demand could reduce 2035 oil demand by nearly 6 million barrels per day. An important result is that oil demand will peak around 2030, at fewer than 100 million barrels per day in this scenario.
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http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/o...emand-in-sight