What matters is the marginal change in the stock not the total change.
This discussion paper is a good entry that discusses the impact that marginal changes are having on the energy system and commodities in that system.
Quote:
Systemic change is focused on questions like when will half of the car fleet be electric vehicles, or when will annual sales of EV reach 40 million. Clearly that is not going to happen for a long time.
Marginal change for the car industry focuses on the 2 million vehicles: which company can take a share of the 2 million vehicle growth. Change here clearly can happen much sooner. Incremental EV sales in 2016 were 0.3 million, and at current growth rates, electric vehicles will supply all incremental car demand in 5 years (Bond, 2017). At this stage the market share of EV would be under 10% and they would make up just 3% of the global fleet.
Meanwhile, we do not see automotive manufactures sitting on their laurels and not worrying about the fact that it will take decades for electric vehicles to replace the internal combustion engine. In 2016, when EV were less than 1% of total sales, a large number of automotive manufacturers, from BMW to Ford, made announcements about a major strategic shift into EV.
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http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/rese...ruary-2017.pdf
So last year the world had 1 million EVs on the road. This year we'll have 2 million EVs. (watch for an IEA report this July to confirm that)