Quote:
Originally Posted by taco.vidal
I think certain trends point to death of wide spread car ownership as we know it North America.
-Fewer young people are driving. Im on mobile and not looking up stats now. I think the numbers are something like 50% of 16 years old had their license in the 1980s and today that it down to 30%. The same stats for people in their mid 20s are down as well. From what Ive read, millenials dont show much interest in driving.
-Trends show that people are leaving the suburbs to live closer in the city
-I think vehicle ownership numbers have been trending down for a while. Total sales might be up and more people might own multiple vehicles but the percentage of people without a vehicle is increasing. Id have to look this one up but Im pretty certain Ive seen the numbers for this in economic articles.
-Adding to the point above, fewer people are owning homes. More people are living in condos and other higher density dwellings. Gone are the days where people want a house in the burbs with double or triple garage and a vehicle for each driver in the family.
-Less people are having kids and those that are, are having just about 1 child. Less need for vehicle than with a family of 2, 3 or more kids.
Times are changing. Just because you today at 40 cant imagine life without your cars and minivan, and cant imagine not living in the burbs, and cant imagine raising a child in a condo, doesnt mean that up and coming generations arent welcoming a lifestyle different than yours.
Lifestyles are changing for younger generations where they dont need vehicles and cant afford vehicles.
I think in the more distant future, private vehicle ownership will be only for the very wealthy.
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First of all, the fact that millenials are driving less is a minor statistical fact compared to the whole economy. And we don't know yet if the change is even permanent. Who knows? Maybe once they grow up and start having children, more will drive.
But let's say you're right and they permanently won't drive as much. And future generations follow suit. Even if that is the case, it would take two generations for it to have any material impact on the economy.
This isn't a case of old people saying 'I want my car, dammit'. It's a case of people (rationally) saying: the change, and the rate of change, that is being suggested is WILDLY unrealistic.
Will these treads all take place? Probably. Will it happen in a manner even remotely close to what the article suggested? Highly unlikely