Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
On what planet are you living. I despise the Oilers but you'll have a really, really hard time explaining this one to me
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NOTE: When I started writing this, I planned to look across all situations. Turns out the data behind the Corsica WOWY tool is broken outside of 5v5 (Milan Lucic has a -450% CF away from Draisaitl, for example).
I'll dive a little deeper into this one since I'm the one who originally posted the stats quoted above on HFBoards. There are two reasons for Draisaitl's impressive numbers: McDavid, and an astronomically high on-ice shooting percentage.
So, let's try to figure out what Draisaitl's season looks like when you control for those two factors.
Goals for/60
McDavid + Draisaitl: 3.52
McDavid w/o Draisaitl: 3.61
Draisaitl w/o McDavid: 2.43
First, notice that McDavid scores
more away from Draisaitl than he does with him, to counter the "Draisaitl helps McDavid too!" argument.
Draisaitl spent 1175 minutes at 5v5 this season. With him on the ice, they scored 60 goals, Draisaitl picking up 40 points. We'll assume his .666 points / goal scored is constant. If you extrapolate, using his 2.43 goals/60 without McDavid and the same ice time, you get 47 goals instead of 60. At the same points / goals ratio, he's down to 31 points.
Of course, that's assuming his on-ice shooting percentage of 12.85% (!!!) is sustainable. That would be the 6th highest shooting percentage of all skaters (>600 minutes) in the last 5 years. Bring that down to a more reasonable 9.5% (the average of the top 10 5v5 scorers), and Draisaitl's down at 23 5v5 points. Bennett had 20 5v5 points this year despite shooting 6.5%.
And that's just the offensive side of things. Defensively, Bennett's shot suppression metrics are miles ahead of Draisaitl's without even needing to control for linemates. Bennett's line allows 2.25 xGA/60, while Draisaitl allows 2.76. Away from Brouwer, Bennett's down at 2.02 xGA/60 while Draisaitl's at 2.96 away from McDavid.
Draisaitl has a massive, massive lead in PP production that likely can't be explained away, but 5v5 the gap is massively overstated.