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Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
One point of interest: conventional polling methodology says that in close races where the incumbent polls lower than 50% in the final weekend, the incumbent is in trouble, because late deciders tend to break for the challenger. If that's so, look for Democratic pickups in Montana and Virginia. I also think they'll eke one out in Missouri (my neighbourinos to the South!)--so it will come down to winning one of Tennessee or Arizona, if my math is right--but both of those are long shots. Corker (R) is polling higher than 50% in Tennessee, and though the GOP candidate is polling lower than 50 in Arizona, he does have about a 7-point lead, I think.
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There's a realistic shot for a Democrat pickup in Tennessee, I think. There was one poll on Saturday that had Ford with a six point lead, but even if you toss out that one, Corker's lead has gone from 10 to 8 to 4 to 3 in the last four polls by major polling agencies--the lead is now within the margin of error.