There are only two possible options Treliving is considering for 2017-2018 and beyond. One of them is on this list. The second, for some odd reason is not.
Option #1. Ben Bishop.
Career GAA 2.32 Career Save PCT 91.9%
Option #2. Matt Murray.
Career GAA 2.32 Career Save PCT 92.5%
I think many on here don't even consider Murray an option. I've made this argument on other threads and other forums and it makes a lot of sense. When considering this it wasn't just thinking "which goalie is the best fit".
It's a two part question.
1. Which goalie makes us a better team.
2. What is Treliving likely to target.
Both goalies have very similar stats. Everyone can agree both are clear #1 goalies. Both are clear significant upgrades on Elliot. Both at a minimum make us Top 3 in Pacific and Top 4 Western Conference. Both push Calgary into the conversation as Stanley Cup contenders for 2017-2018.
Ben Bishop makes a lot of sense. He's a UFA and costs next to nothing to acquire. He has years of experience that show exactly what he is capable of.
On the other hand....
Matt Murray also makes a lot of sense. He is young and would be an idea fit for our young core of Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Tkachuk, Brodie. He doesn't have years of experience but more importantly has demonstrated he can excel when it matters most as is evidenced by his Stanley Cup ring.
The downside to Bishop is he is likely going to command a 6 year salary of at least $30 million or a 5 year contract at $30 million. Nobody knows when his performance will drop off and we could be stuck with a $6 million backup in 4 years.
The downside to Murray is straight forward. Murray will cost a small fortune in terms of young assets the penguins will demand for him in a trade. I've outlined this on other threads and websites. Everyone agrees it's a massive haul of prospects and talent going to Pittsburgh all for one very young and talented goalie.
What will Matt Murray cost?
The like ask will be something along the lines of.
2017 1st Round pick
2018 2nd Round pick
Sam Bennett or Mark Jankowski
Andersson or Kylington
Gilles or Parsons
and quite possibly...
Klimchuk or Shinkaruk
In years past we've heard gm's frequently describe the return for players in their mid to late 20's as being, a 1st round pick, roster player and prospect.
I personally believe a trade such as this;
To Pittsburgh: 2017 1st round pick, 2018 2nd round pick, Rasmus Andersson, Mark Jankowski & Jon Gillies.
To Calgary: Matt Murray
Treliving has demonstrated previously that he is incredibly stubborn. When he sees a player he wants he will target that player until he can make it work.
Case in point. Douggie Hamilton.
Many Flames Fans to this day think Calgary won the Douggie Hamilton trade.
FYI Boston won the trade. It's not even close. Boston was able to draft a Dman with our second round pick who is already a Top4 Dman in Brandon Carlo. Further that the 15th overall pick we gave them turned into a right wing prospect that has only scored 87 goals in his last 125 games in junior.
Unless Hamilton becomes a #1D Norris quality Dman we lose the trade. At the time of trade Treliving even admitted we gave up a lot for the rights to Hamilton. Most thought we robbed Boston. In 3-5 years its likely to flip upside down if Zachary Senyshyn can become a 20-25 goal right winger for the Boston Bruins.
On top of this Treliving has demonstrated the clear ability to go out and acquire UFA players that can only be described as requiring a Forest Gump like intelligence.
Signing Brouwer and Hiller are two shining examples of idiocity at it's finest. Trading a 2nd round pick for Elliot in utter desperation doesn't help his case either.
Going into the 2016 Draft and 2016-2017 season the Flames had two clear needs. A #1 goalie and a #4D.
There were plenty of options to acquire a #1 goalie. Everyone assumed that Treliving and Rutherford were discussing trading the Flames 6th overall 2016 pick for MAF. Treliving has NOT ever inquired about acquiring MAF. Rutherford on the other hand has offered MAF to the Flames.
At the 2016 NHL draft the Calgary Flames were set to trade the 6th overall pick to Pittsburgh in exchange for goalie Matt Murray. It would have been an excellent trade for both teams until Jim Benning had a brain fart and accidentally said the wrong name at the podium.
With Matthew Tkachuk still available at #6 Treliving put in motion the least likely scenario. Drafting another LW in Tkachuk and trading a 2nd round selection for Brian Elliot.
Make no mistake. Option #1 at the draft was Matt Murray. You are kidding yourself if you do not think Rutherford wanted that deal either. They had a young goalie that had just played lights out and won them a Stanley cup. He played above and beyond what anybody could have expected and NOBODY knew if Matt Murray's play would be sustainable into the 2016-2017 season.
That was the risk Treliving was willing to make.
The options I believe Treliving had up his sleeve.
#1. Trade 6th Overall to Tampa Bay. I firmly believe this trade involved both Ben Bishop and Jonathan Drouin. At the time Drouin's value was exceedingly low. Drouin only had 42 points in his first 91 games. If Treliving was to trade pick this high there is no chance he would do it for a near 30 year old Goalie. This trade falls apart with Tkachuk still on the board at #6.
#2. Trade 6th Overall to Pittsburgh. I firmly believe this trade involved Matt Murray plus Derrick Pouliot. In this trade Treliving takes a gamble with an unproven #1 Goalie in Matt Murray and also acquires a Defensive prospect that instantly becomes our #1 Defensive prospect. Pouliot could easily have projected as a future Top4 D within 2-3 seasons. This trade also falls apart with Tkachul still on the board at #6.
3. Do not Trade 6th Overall if the player available is Poolparty, Tkachuk or Dubois. Sign UFA James Reimer. This option falls apart as Reimer indicates an unwillingness to sign in the Western Conference prior to the NHL entry draft.
4. Do not Trade 6th Overall if the player available is Poolparty, Tkachuk or Dubois. Trade with St. Louis for either of Brian Elliot or Jake Allen. Take whichever goalie St. Louis is willing to surrender for less.
I am telling you right now if Vancouver takes Tkachuk the trade with Tampa Bay goes ahead. Ben Bishop admitted he has talks about a contract extension. Everyone assumes Treliving balked at paying 29 year old Ben Bishop a 7M AAV contract. This was never the case. Treliving had all of his options on the table right up until that #6 pick became clearly evident that it would not be traded.
Trading Tkachuk for Bishop, Drouin and a 2nd overall pick is likely something most Flames Fans would agree to without thinking twice.
Trading Tkachuk for Murray + Pouliot at the time of the draft is a move that would have been incredibly risky and controversial. This trade would come with substantially more risk than the Douggie Hamilton trade. Nobody knew if Murray was a legit #1 going forward or just a flash in the pan Hammond the Hamburgler fluke goalie.
Drafting Tkachuk and Signing Reimer.
This is hands down the best option possible. Not only did Reimer sign with Florida for an insanely low value contract his play in 2016-2017 was nearly as good as Murray's and better than Bishops.
Drafting Tkachuk and trading for Elliot....
Was utter desperation on Treliving's part. He had no choice as he couldn't stand pat and bring back Ramo or Hiller. Jon Gillies hadn't even played an AHL season at this point. Treliving had to acquire some goalie. In this case in desperation he acquired the worst goalie he could find at the lowest price anybody would accept.
What will happen this year?
There are only two options. He will circle back to #1 or #2.
The only problem now is the upside with both potential deals are gone. Bishop is a year older and will want similar term and dollars as last year. He's no longer attached to a top line prospect in Drouin.
Murray is the most likely option. #6 overall last year wouldn't have been so bad if Tkachuk was gone. The players left were 2nd/3rd line forwards and #3/#4 Dmen.
Right now you either pay up the Cash and Term to acquire Bishop.
OR.
You pony up the assets required by Pittsburgh to have Rutherford even contemplate trading a Top 5 NHL goalie.
Either way in 2017-2018 the Calgary Flames will be a bonafide Top 4 Western Conference Team and easily in the discussion to push for a Stanley Cup Appearance.
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