Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
Would certainly be a statement. The North Koreans have a fleet of submarines so could they conducted their next nuclear test in the waters beneath the American carrier group? Then if the US twitches the North Koreans obliterate Seoul in a blaze of glory right before Pyongyang becomes a smoldering radioactive dead zone.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee
but then what? Then China's pissed. I still don't think the US pulls the trigger as an aggressor. Sabre-rattling be damned.
But I will saw it sure seems like Trump's determined to make a "legacy" (aka go to war with someone). Which could be good for oil prices. Sorry that sounds bad (it is bad), but you gotta think the probability of a Trump started war is >60% over his tenure here.
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The NK regime in the end is about self preservation. It's fun to call the crazy, but I don't think they are, they're rational actors, just their priorities don't take reality into account.
They feel that they need nuclear to protect themselves, not to be an aggressor. So I don't think they'll instigate anything unless they feel that the demise of the regime is imminent and striking out is the only hope.
But they won't stop their nuclear program, so it'll be someone else that eventually takes the step of stopping (or trying to stop) them.
My biggest worry is that that path will be littered with innocent South Korean and Japanese lives.