Quote:
Originally Posted by Meers
Sorry, but Treliving just traded a 70% chance of a bust for a 100% certainty of one. Not a fan of this deal.
|
I don't agree that it's a 100% certainty of a bust, because that's just not the case. He is still 22 years old. There are plenty of players who are slow to adjust to the NHL and end up being very useful - Blake Wheeler comes to mind, or Lucic, or Ryan Kesler.
So while I agree that there's a good chance he doesn't turn into a good player for the Flames, the chance isn't 100%, and it certainly isn't anything close to being 100% chance of a
bust (e.g. Lazar never contributes anything to the Flames). But I do think his chance of being an important part of the team isn't very good at all, and there's a much better chance of him being a useful bottom six player. Those aren't bad assets to have, obviously.
But you're also underselling the 2nd rounder. First, it's actually something in the vicinity of 35% of 2nd rounders becoming NHL players who get more than 100gp, but this is a weak draft, and 3rd rounders are about 30%, so maybe you're right. But let's assume this is the 20th pick of the 2nd round - around 12% of those players go on to become top six forwards or top four defensemen, and some are obviously elite (Shea Weber, Cammalleri, Duncan Keith, Jason Pominville, P.K. Subban, Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara, Paul Statsny or the aforementioned Lucic were all drafted around this range). So you're also giving up a somewhat remote chance to draft a high end talent or even a legitimate superstar franchise piece. And while 12% or so isn't great, you can't win the lottery if you don't have a ticket.
That's why I don't really like the deal. I don't hate it, but players like the guy Lazar is likely to end up being (if he doesn't bust and does indeed end up being useful to the Flames) are easier to find. The only way to get a Patrice Bergeron or Duncan Keith is to play the lottery that is the NHL draft, and hope your number comes up.