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Originally Posted by Krovikan
What are they using to arrive at the 29% number, just the asteroid belt? Or are they including Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud objects? Also, how are they estimating the unknown?
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I think it's an estimation of between how many big asteroids they have tracked and how many they have seen..something along those lines anyway.
Phil Plait says the smallish(60 ft) Chelyabinsk meteor actually was seen about a year before but was lost in the sun and forgotten before it exploded over Russian injuring 1500 people, he said many larger even more dangerous ones follow the same path and unless they can get a grip on a particular orbit most can't be tracked until it would be too late.