[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

You keep bringing up other criminals being a more significant threat. That is not the standard set out by the law for letting people out of prison. It is the standard set out by law here. So what criminals do is absolutely not relavent to this case.

What? Of course if people think we should change the law and remove the rights of an innocent person because they feel he is a threat, then bringing up people who are higher threats and free is relevant.

Originally Posted by GGG

The statistics show somewhere between a 1/100 and 1/1000 chance of him killing again.

Come on GGG, you're better than that. There's no statistics for him. There was one person is Manitoba found NCR who went on to kill again. He was 16 and released after 4 months, he didn't even have schizophrenia. Provide statistics on people found NCR due to schizophrenia, who have been treated for 8 years and been deemed a non-threat and then we can talk about the stats of him....Given the advances in medical treatment we should also be talking about people who have been released relatively recently. Of course I'll throw you a bone and just say in general.

Originally Posted by GGG

They are looking at him as an individual rather than as a statistic. And when evaluating threats it should be statiscal probabilities that govern.

Yeah, no. Even if we believed that, there are no statistics of relevance that could possibly be used.

If you actually wanted to use stats with respect to Li's case, the actual conclusion, outside of "not enough data," would be very low. Right now all we got is a bunch of mishmash of limited data on limited countries over years where NCR and medical treatment knowledge was far less than today. Comparing Canada (who by the accounts I read seem to be a leader in schizophrenia rehabilitation like this) and comparing it to the Chuvash Republic and people released in 1981, who didn't have readily available treatment due to their financial situation, doesn't do justice when it's someone's freedom at stake. I mean at the very least we should be using statistics from Canada, and as far as I can tell we don't have any of relation to Li. In fact, I'm not sure if anyone has been able to bring up a single case of a person who killed due to a schizophrenic psychotic episode who went on to have another schizophrenic psychotic episode resulting in another death in Canada. Of course, as I've argued, there's limited information available on that because there's limited data available and the sample sizes are extremely small.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3933385/

This study suggests that in most jurisdictions, the rate of recidivist homicide offences by people with schizophrenia who have been released to community care is very low. There were no cases of homicide recidivism in New Zealand [36] or Austria [33] over periods of 30 and 25 years respectively. A low rate of recidivism was also suggested by the findings of most of the other studies from high-income countries conducted over shorter periods.

However, the low rates of homicide recidivism in the unpublished data might also be a due to under-reporting, for example, as a result of the imperfect recollection of homicide recidivism by the primary researchers.

There was one case from New South Wales, Australia [6,13], and one case in a recent study from Saudi Arabia [26]. The authors of 8 other published studies from Austria [33], Australia (two studies from Victoria) [21,34], Barbados [35], New Zealand [36], The Netherlands [28], Nigeria [37] and Singapore [38] confirmed that there were no cases of recidivism in their samples. The authors of 3 studies from the UK confirmed the presence of some recidivists in their samples but they could not specify the number of cases [14,17,25]. Hence, of 29 studies reporting homicide offenders with schizophrenia from defined geographic regions, 3 studies reported homicide recidivism according to our definition

Despite significant limitations of the available data, our results suggest that repeat homicides by people with schizophrenia are rare in jurisdictions with low rates of total homicide and well developed services for the long-term treatment of homicide offenders with schizophrenia.