[DionTheDman]

Objective: To examine criminal recidivism rates of a large sample of people found not
criminally responsible on account of mental disorder (NCRMD) in Canada’s 3 most
populous provinces, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. Public concern about the
dangerousness of people found NCRMD has been fed by media attention on high-profile
cases. However, little research is available on the rate of reoffending among people found
NCRMD across Canadian provinces.
...
Results: Recidivism was relatively low after 3 years (17%). There were interprovincial
differences after controlling for number of prior criminal offences, diagnosis, seriousness
of the index offence, and supervision by the review boards. British Columbia (10%) and
Ontario (9%) were similar, whereas Quebec had almost twice the recidivism (22%). People
who had committed severe violent index offences were less likely to reoffend than those
who had committed less severe offences. People from the sample were less likely to
reoffend when under the purview of review boards, across all 3 provinces.
...
According to a seminal meta-analysis by Bonta et al,14
multiple factors are associated with the likelihood of
general and specifically violent recidivism of offenders with
mental disorders. These factors include criminal history,
psychiatric diagnosis, and nature of the index offence. Their
results also showed that people found not guilty by reason
of insanity (equivalent to the NCRMD verdict) were less
likely to reoffend than those who did not have this finding.
Moreover, people with mental illness who committed
a serious offence, such as homicide or sexual offences,
were less likely to reoffend than those who committed less
serious offences.
...
Among the 1768 people under
observation 3 years after the index verdict, 16.7% (n = 295)
had committed a new offence, regardless of whether they
were still under the purview of the RB. This rate went up to
20.3% (267/1319) 3 years following conditional discharge,
and to 21.8% (207/949) 3 years following absolute discharge.
In the 3 years following the index verdict, Ontario and British
Columbia had similar recidivism rates, but in Quebec the rate
was more than twice as high: 21.5% (229/1063) of people
from Quebec, 9.5% (21/221) of those from British Columbia,
and 9.3% (45/484) of those from Ontario had perpetrated
a new offence, regardless of their disposition status
(Figure 1A). People who had committed a severe offence
for their index NCRMD verdict had the lowest recidivism
rates (Figure 1B) of all groups: 3 years following the index
offence, only 6.0% (10/159) committed a new offence of
any kind. The recidivism rate was higher among people
who committed a less severe index offence against a person
(15.3%; /151/988) or people who committed index offences
that were not against a person (21.6%; 134/621).
The recidivism rate when only reoffences against a person
not classified as severe were considered (8.8% after 3 years;
154/1755) was similar to the recidivism rate when only
reoffences that were not against a person were considered
(10.5% after 3 years; 186/1765; Figure 1C). Almost
one-third (29%) of these offences against a person involved
threats. The recidivism rate for a severe violent offence
within 3 years was extremely low: 0.6% (9/1611).

Derp derp.