I don't know how much court/rest time will really play into this. in 2009 Rafa played the same type of mega marathon against Verdasco in the semis, and came back fresh as a daisy to beat Roger a couple days later. maybe it does play more of a factor now that they're both in their 30's, but I don't think it's enough to wipe out the huge matchup advantage he's always had.
if Rafa is on, he can only be beaten by hitting through him (e.g. Stan) or physically outlasting him (e.g. Nole). Grigor is hitting a lot harder these days and was almost able to take option #1. Roger's finesse game doesn't fit either of these options, so his only hope is to serve and volley out of his mind and/or hope Rafa has a bad day.
and also the mental aspect of having been ragdolled by the guy for the past 12 years, it's a tough mountain to climb. As a Fedfan I'm sad to say he probably can't get this one done, but I'll still savor a match that I thought had zero chance of ever taking place again.
also, special shout out to the AO organizers for speeding up the balls/court and succeeding in breaking the Djokovic - Murray pattern that just would never end.
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