Quote:
Originally Posted by Delgar
This is revisionist and inaccurate. The "good" polls tracked both popular vote and had translations to the electoral college. All of them had Hillary winning both.
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You had Huff post and the Princeton model at 99+ %.
The NYT was 80%. Five thirty eight had it at 75%
More importantly if you want to read how accurate 538s prediction was read their last week of articles leading up to the election where every day they said approximately the following. If Hillary Clinton has only a 2%-3% edge in the popular vote her electoral math becomes difficult because of the demographics in the mid western states. So for trump to win you just need a 2% miss in the national number which has happened regularly. Flip a coin twice if you flip heads twice Trump wins.
Nate also got in a twitter fight with the Huff post modelers over giving trump too much of a chance. In my opinion the 538 model was almost exactly right.