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Old 01-24-2017, 07:38 PM   #245
Slava
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Regorium View Post
fivethirtyeight had Hilary at a 75% chance to win the election. This means that 1 in 4 times, Trump wins.

A 75% chance is not 100%. A 25% chance is not 0%.

Even the other models, 90% chance to win is STILL not 100% chance. It's 1 in 10, which is pretty significant. I wouldn't do something if someone said I had a a 1 in 10 chance of being severely injured.
Is that it though? I don't care enough to delve deeper, but I was pretty sure there were claims way into the 90's on election day. Yeah, I get it....probabilities work that way where its not 100%, so its not wrong. That being said, it was a pretty atrocious miss no matter how you spin it.
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