Originally Posted by Mike F
Here's how the numbers look...
For the returning core players (Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Giordano, Brodie, & Hamilton): Last year they scored 114 goals. This season they're on pace for 85. 29 goals less.
For the returning non-core players (Backlund, Frolik, Ferland, Stajan, Bouma, & Wideman): Last year they scored 50 goals. This year they're on pace for 69. 19 goals more.
Finally, the guys that were moved out (Colborne, Hudler, Jones, & Jooris) scored 42 goals last year. The new guys brought in this season (Tkachuk, Versteeg, Brouwer, & Chiasson) are on pace for 57 goals, 15 more.
My analysis: Treliving does the job of upgrading the roster player-wise (particularly if you take into account goaltending which, while it hasn't been lights-out this season, it's clearly better than last year's clusterfata), but Gulutzen gets less out of it, particularly at the top end.
What does this mean for judging Treliving's success and whether he should be brought back... I think he's done the nuts & bolts of GMing well; he's signed more good contracts than bad and upgraded the roster and the franchise's depth overall. However, he's also hamstrung the team the last two years: Once by failing to address the obvious goaltending problem the entire season, and once by whiffing on his head coach pick.
So, if you're an owner and you're looking at a guy who made some decent moves, but has failed to maintain the trajectory of on-ice success that it appeared to be on through self-inflicted wounds, do you buck up and give him the long-term extension I expect he's looking for, or do you make a move?
I'm really on the fence, but ultimately think you bring him back unless he's adamant that Gulutzen is his guy. He's done more good than bad, and is young enough that I expect the ratio to improve more and more in the future.
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