Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike F
Here's how the numbers look...
For the returning core players (Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Giordano, Brodie, & Hamilton): Last year they scored 114 goals. This season they're on pace for 85. 29 goals less.
For the returning non-core players (Backlund, Frolik, Ferland, Stajan, Bouma, & Wideman): Last year they scored 50 goals. This year they're on pace for 69. 19 goals more.
Finally, the guys that were moved out (Colborne, Hudler, Jones, & Jooris) scored 42 goals last year. The new guys brought in this season (Tkachuk, Versteeg, Brouwer, & Chiasson) are on pace for 57 goals, 15 more.
My analysis: Treliving does the job of upgrading the roster player-wise (particularly if you take into account goaltending which, while it hasn't been lights-out this season, it's clearly better than last year's clusterfata), but Gulutzen gets less out of it, particularly at the top end.
What does this mean for judging Treliving's success and whether he should be brought back... I think he's done the nuts & bolts of GMing well; he's signed more good contracts than bad and upgraded the roster and the franchise's depth overall. However, he's also hamstrung the team the last two years: Once by failing to address the obvious goaltending problem the entire season, and once by whiffing on his head coach pick.
So, if you're an owner and you're looking at a guy who made some decent moves, but has failed to maintain the trajectory of on-ice success that it appeared to be on through self-inflicted wounds, do you buck up and give him the long-term extension I expect he's looking for, or do you make a move?
I'm really on the fence, but ultimately think you bring him back unless he's adamant that Gulutzen is his guy. He's done more good than bad, and is young enough that I expect the ratio to improve more and more in the future.
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Good post.
So ultimately you think it is the coach gulutzan that is not getting enough out of the top guys, even though Treliving has improved the supporting cast around them?
Do you think the supporting cast is objectively better or is Gulutzan maybe getting more out of them than another coach might be able to?
I can get on board with the idea that the coach isn't right for the roster but when I look at the newcomers and returning players who are having success I don't think they would be producing as much with say Hartley, but maybe everyone would be finding more success with a coach like boudreau or byslma.
The reason I don't think a different coach would necessarily be having a bigger impact is when I look at your non-core returning players, the goal increase appears to be coming on the backs of frolik and backlund almost entirely. Bouma, stajan, ferland and Wideman are all much worse than last season in my opinion. This is what gives Gulutzan a bit of a pass for me, because I think these aforementioned players are honestly just bad, but they are so prominent on the roster that there is no option but to play them. Bouma is almost as bad as bollig was before being sent to the ahl and Wideman might be fortunate to get another contract in the nhl. But they basically need to be played every night.
I think the top players probably produced more last year because of the freedom to create but the players lacking creativity produced less because of unreliable systems play. I think this is what contributed to the abysmal special teams last year because the flames didn't have enough offensive weaponry for two units and the system's weren't good enough to compensate for the lack of ability.
This season the personnel might be better but the system's definitely are as well. I just had a look at poweplay points in the team and your analysis seems to hold true about the new players as versteeg and brouwer are in the top third if the team but there at the top of the list is backlund, historically not a tremendous pp producer.
Mostly though I look at this roster and I think how much better the team will be once they can get out from under Wideman, Smid, stajan Engelland and bouma. That's basically 15 million that can be added directly to the budget for top minute players and I think is pretty much the only reason at this point that the team isn't more competitive with the core assets they have. I don't think a coach changes those fortunes much at all.