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Originally Posted by red sky
I attended. He was very engaging for sure and raised some interesting points. The demographic aspect for Russia was certainly a different perspective. Kind of now or never for their army and to secure their boarders.
Edit: was fascinated by Amanda Lang's face barely moving when she spoke. I am not sure she could frown or smile if she was asked too.
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I thought she did a really good job as a moderator. Kept the discussion moving along quite well. I was hoping for a bit more diversity of opinion from the panelists, though. Not that I want conflict, per se, but it seemed like both ladies were content to stay within their zones of expertise and not challenge any statements made by the other.
Zeihan's talk was fascinating.
Expanded notes:
1. North America (and specifically the U.S.) is doomed to be a world economic super power if for no other reason than having the largest basin of arable land in the world, combined with substantial natural transportation routes (rivers, etc.).
2. The U.S. is getting sick of taking care of the rest of the world as they have since the Bretonwoods accord.
3. Americans are largely responsible for globalization as a result of the outcome of Bretonwoods (agreed that Americans would effectively police the high seas and secure global trade routes).
4. The advent of shale in the U.S. is leading the Americans towards energy independence, therefore their interest in oil producing areas around the world is waning.
5. Americans will step back and start to let the rest of the world figure out how to maneuver for scarce energy resources.
6. Population demographics in developed nations suck, and everyone (Canada included) is about to see their primary tax contributors (baby boomers) move into retirement and become drains on the system.
7. Alberta is going to get taxed through the nose by the federal government, because we are literally the only province with a substantial economy in Canada with a somewhat normal demography.
8. Alberta should join the U.S.
Far too short of a summary, and I'm vastly simplifying his talk, but I found it a fascinating subject. He combined a critical analysis of global demographies and resource scarcity to evaluate the motivation of nations to take the actions they have. I.E. Russia has such an aging demography that their recent imperialistic action makes sense when looking at how their population base (read through to military) will look in the next 20 years.