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octothorp · 10-25-2006, 04:12 PM

I think the best comparable might be to Yugoslavia: both are post-ottoman states that combine varied ethnic and religious groups who have no real connection with one another beyond a history of occupying (and often fighting over) the same territory. Both were briefly established as monarchies (the Hashemites in Iraq and the Karadadrovics in Yugoslavia) that were subsequently overthrown in coup d-etats and were ruled by strong, charismatic and occasionally brutal dictators (Tito, Saddam) who tried to suppress the identities of the various groups. Both suffered a leadership-void following the end of the dictator's reign and experienced a rise in tensions (primarily ethnic in yugoslavia, sectarian in iraq). And like Yugoslavia, the ultimate solution in Iraq may be to divide it up into several small nations.

Part of the reason the former yugoslavia has reached a relatively peaceful state is because of the ethnic cleansing that occured (first by various militias and armies, and later by a voluntary relocation program). The partitioning into various (relatively) ethnically homogenous nations could not have happened had it not followed the tragedy of the ethnic cleansing. And now there are reports today of ethnic cleansing in Bagdad, which is one of the first signs that they're headed down that same path. The foreign powers involved in Iraq need to come up with a solution now to address this, because otherwise the Iraqis will address it themselves in a far bloodier manner. I think it's time to start looking at partitioning the country. It's going to be an extremely difficult process. It might even be impossible, but it's starting to look more and more like the best bet to avoid civil war. And you can't do it without the concent of Turkey and Iran. They need to be on board, or the new nations will collapse in a hurry.

10-25-2006, 04:12 PM	#14
octothorp Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: not lurking Exp:	I think the best comparable might be to Yugoslavia: both are post-ottoman states that combine varied ethnic and religious groups who have no real connection with one another beyond a history of occupying (and often fighting over) the same territory. Both were briefly established as monarchies (the Hashemites in Iraq and the Karadadrovics in Yugoslavia) that were subsequently overthrown in coup d-etats and were ruled by strong, charismatic and occasionally brutal dictators (Tito, Saddam) who tried to suppress the identities of the various groups. Both suffered a leadership-void following the end of the dictator's reign and experienced a rise in tensions (primarily ethnic in yugoslavia, sectarian in iraq). And like Yugoslavia, the ultimate solution in Iraq may be to divide it up into several small nations. Part of the reason the former yugoslavia has reached a relatively peaceful state is because of the ethnic cleansing that occured (first by various militias and armies, and later by a voluntary relocation program). The partitioning into various (relatively) ethnically homogenous nations could not have happened had it not followed the tragedy of the ethnic cleansing. And now there are reports today of ethnic cleansing in Bagdad, which is one of the first signs that they're headed down that same path. The foreign powers involved in Iraq need to come up with a solution now to address this, because otherwise the Iraqis will address it themselves in a far bloodier manner. I think it's time to start looking at partitioning the country. It's going to be an extremely difficult process. It might even be impossible, but it's starting to look more and more like the best bet to avoid civil war. And you can't do it without the concent of Turkey and Iran. They need to be on board, or the new nations will collapse in a hurry.