Quote:
Originally Posted by tkflames
To clarify, level of competition is based on the number of points each team had accumulated on December 10th (not based on that point of the season). I figured 30 games was long enough to get a relatively good representation of the level of play of each team.
In hindsight I should have used points percentage instead of points...will update when I get a chance
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Let's try this again. This time with basis listed:
To Clarify Data:
1. The PPG by the competition is the total that any competition had accumulated on December 10th. My logic is that while a team can be hot at the beginning of the season (e.g. the Oilers), by approximately Game 30, a teams level of competition is generally established. Hence the American thanksgiving/playoff phenomenon. There are exceptions to this of course, but this should average out for the most part.
2. The green line is the average PPG accumulated by all NHL teams after 30 games.
3. For the purple line, the way to read this is how good were the last three teams that Flames played at any given time (i.e. breaking the season into 3 game segments from any given game).
4. For the orange line, the way to read this is how good were the last ten teams that Flames played at any given time (i.e. effectively breaking the season into 10 game segments from any given game).
5. To troll the .500 crowd, the NHL average PPG after roughly 30 games is 1.1...is this the new .500?
Assumptions of the Chart:
1. The points of teams accumulated after 30 games is representative of how they will progress.
2. Major changes mid season in player personel are not accounted for (e.g. LA will look representatively weaker because of their performance without Quick/Gaborik/Kopitar etc.)
3. Using a 3 game rolling average, if the team plays a good team and a bad team, this will look the same as playing 2 average teams. I justify this as dismisable as in both scenarios if the Flames are an average team they should be expected to pick up 2 points.
4. This graph does not (and is not meant to address) anecdotal evidence that the team is playing better (i.e. the Flames beat a good team in the ducks 8-3, but lost to a bad team previously). On any given night the Flames can beat a good team or lose to a bad team. Over an 82 game season, this will average out to land the Flames to where they should probably be ranked.
My initial analysis still stands. The team played tougher competition at the beginning of the season and is currently in one of the softest stretches. While there are improvements in how the team is playing from a visual standpoint, I am "cautiously optimistic" that they have in fact turned the corner, but still have concerns that this is overstated given that the level of competition has deteriorated to the worst it will be all season.