[CaptainCrunch]

The industrial might, might not have mattered if Japan had smashed the american carriers at Pearl. Ultimately if that last line of defense had been crushed Japan would have logically moved to take Hawaii in a massive amphibious assault before America could have re-enforced.

If they had entrenched Hawaii they would have re-enforced with land based planes and bombers and then they could have threatened the American Pacific coast with bombardment from their battleships.

Moral in America would have been completely shattered and America probably would have negotiated a separate peace with Japan in exchange for the return of Hawaii as a disarmed state.

Japan then would have been content to fold backwards and go after the abandoned fortress islands like Midway which they would have taken because of America's inability to re-enforce them.

The alliance between Japan and Germany made a lot of conventional sense. They hoped that if they split American interests in case of war that they would have been able to grind out American re-enforcements. I firmly believe though that Hitler blundered with a pre-emptive declaration of war against America.

The Russian/German non-aggression pact made a lot more sense. Basically Stalin knew that Hitler would eventually come, but his armed forces was a mess due to his great purge in 1937-38 which accounted for a lot of his senior officers with Great War experience being executed or sent to the Gulags to count trees.

Because of this his army was disorganized and badly under equipt. He hoped that he would get time to organize a proper defense of his Western Front. Stalin was also praying that Japan wouldn't invade his Eastern borders because he started sending a lot of his hardier eastern formations out West to block the germans.

Fortunately for the Russian's Richard Sorge who was a Russian Spy in Japan provided Stalin with two pieces of key information 1) that the German's were certainly going to attack Russia but didn't know the time line 2) that the Japanese invasion of Russia was not happening anytime soon, so Stalin was able to move about 20 divisions to his Western Front which eventually formed the core of his push to Berlin.

When Germany invaded Stalin was taken completely by surprise, the German troops passed Russian Trains heading to Germany with loads of grain and fuel.